I’d like to pick up where I left off on Thursday last week, where I’m going through a summary of my draft and explaining my thinking for my strategy and picks. I went through my first 5 picks where I filled out my infield, including with keepers, and an outfield position as well. So, to review, up to this point I have Contreras, Bellinger, Albies, Turner, Ramirez, and Butler for my offense, leaving 3 more spots I need to fill a full lineup; two outfielders and a utility position that can be any hitter. On the pitching side, up to this point I’ve kept McClanahan and Alcantara while also drafting Nola. With my next pick in the 6th round, a player I took in this spot where I didn’t expect him to fall to me was Christian Yelich. Other owners could have been potentially scared away from drafting him due to his injury history and coming off of back surgery in the off-season as well. I will admit that last year I was very high on Yelich and really wanted him after missing out on him in the draft. He then started the season looking like an MVP again, and to be fair he had the same type of production but it only lasted half a season. He has battled a back injury on and off since his MVP season in 2018. To put both seasons into context, a good rule of thumb for a true elite hitter and superstar in fantasy is that a player having a top tier type of season is going to score roughly a point per at bat, and I use at bats and not plate appearances, so walks, sacrifice flies, sacrifice bunts, and hit by pitches are not included. So when Yelich won MVP he scored 618.5 fantasy points in 574 at bats. Last year, in 2024, Yelich scored 276 fantasy points in 270 at bats. If you wanted to calculate what he was on pace for in the same 574 plate appearances, just last year he was on pace for 587 fantasy points which would have been an elite season. While Yelich didn’t get that chance or give that actual value, when he was healthy the only players who averaged more points per at bat were Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr, Juan Soto, and Jose Ramirez. They were the only 5 other players to even average over a point per at bat, and those are just the 5 names who have been the consensus as who should be the top 5 picks in any points league. I don’t think this can be dismissed either after surgery, because he really put a lot of concerns to rest by having a really good spring training this year. Looking at Yelich, he definitely started off the season cold but is now up to 4 home runs and 4 stolen bases. I wasn’t actually worried about him, but I felt even more optimistic after the underlying numbers and metrics lined up with what he’s done throughout his career since becoming an elite player. The best sign of health for Yelich has always been whether he is stealing bases or not, and the fact he already has 4 steals is real reason to be optimistic. Yes, he could get hurt at any moment but so could any other player.

With my next pick I drafted Anthony Santander, a hitter who I also had last year and really like his consistency and sure value. So up to this point I’ve drafted my 2 outfielders in a row that I needed and only have the utility position left for my offense. When I talked about being able to execute my strategy, I really wanted to take 6 hitters out of my first 7 picks, and I was able to do that while also feeling really good about the players I got. In a real competitive league like this one, I was able to draft much better hitting that I originally expected. I think the only thing I would point out that I’ve thought about is that I did expect to get a better 2nd hitter than Albies, but still believe with how it played out that I made all the right picks, at least with my hitting. It remains to be seen how the Nola pick works out, but it was a safe pick at the time I was very happy with. Santander really made a jump in the home run department in 2024, hitting a career high 44 home runs. That was substantially more than his previous high, which was 33 home runs that he hit in 2022. He has also been off to a slow start like Yelich, but his underlying metrics are largely the same as they were in 2024. The main thing I will point out though is that his barrel percentage is way down. The sample size is too small to definitively say this is who Santander is now, as you usually need roughly 2 months of games for the data to truly stabilize. It’s still worth noting that he’s just not barreling up the baseball as well as he did last year, but I still expect it to increase. His barrel rate so far is 4.5%, well below league average and even further below average than what’s normal for Santander. The MLB average is 8.1%, and in 2024 his barrel percentage was 10.9%. So I still expect a good season from Santander and don’t see him as someone I’ll ever take out of my lineup all season.

My 8th pick ended up being Bryan Woo, a pitcher who I had picked up on the waiver wire when he debuted in 2023. He was useful that season and showed good potential for the Mariners, but really kind of broke out in 2024 as a steady starting pitcher for fantasy. What stood out to me the most in his numbers was how low his WHIP was last season. It’s a stat I’ve learned is very important in a points league and worthy of attention. He seemed to battle minor injuries on and off all of last season, but he still got up to 120 innings that were very productive and valuable. He also is very efficient and capable of pitching deep into games. I really like starting pitchers who consistently go at least 6 or 7 innings, and ideally want someone who consistently shows the ability to pitch into the 7th inning. With his volume of innings on a per start basis, and ability to limit base runners Woo provides a ton of value in a points league. While I initially thought I’d draft a better second pitcher, I still was happy to take Woo in that spot. He probably shouldn’t have been available there. Something that gets missed a lot in points league is this idea of how important strikeouts are for a starting pitcher. Yes, you’d always prefer the extra strikeouts if you can also get volume, but there’s usually only 4 or 5 of those at a time in the entire sport. So that’s quite a rarity. A pitcher who is going to have a low WHIP and potentially throw 180 or more innings is much more valuable in my eyes. Woo also showed the ability of a strikeout upside in 2023, when he struck out 93 in 87.2 innings. He honestly is a great example of what I’m talking about though, as I’d much rather have his 2024 season than his 2023 season. In 2023, along with those strikeout numbers it came with an ERA of 4.21 and WHIP of 1.21. In 2024, Woo struck out 101 in 121.1 innings, but his ERA and WHIP were much better at 2.89 and 0.90. Given the choice I’d rather have the lower ERA and WHIP than more strikeouts, and Woo showing that ability means he has the potential to do it all, where he could strike out a batter per inning with an ERA under 3 and a sub 1 WHIP.

Next I picked another starting pitcher in Jared Jones, and unfortunately this one hasn’t worked out too well so far. It never got a chance to get going since he then suffered an elbow injury before the season started. Jones is a player I picked up last year who initially was looking like the breakout pitcher in the sport. He started the year looking like an ace, and with his combo of elite fastball and slider was drawing comparisons to Spencer Strider. He then struggled in the second half while losing velocity and also getting hurt. He still showed that tremendous upside in the first month last year so I took a shot on him. He had also been working on mixing in some more pitches in the spring, adding a sinker that looked good and throwing his good changeup more as well. So I was excited, and it still could pan out but I had to drop him just yesterday. I hope to be able to get him back before he returns, but if that doesn’t happen I’m okay with it at this point. He will be back by July at the earliest, and he’s no guarantee to stay healthy from that point on even if he does make it back. I am still very much in on Jones long-term though.

To round out my top 10, another pick I haven’t been totally pleased with in the end is Xander Bogaerts. I have kind of been fading him in my mind the last few seasons, as he doesn’t flash much upside anymore in the power department. While he’s good for a high floor he doesn’t offer much excitement or potential for upside, so I didn’t like that pick. My thinking was I just wanted someone safe, and I liked his dual eligibility at shortstop and 2nd base as a backup in case Albies or Turner got hurt. I’ve needed to take more chances on pitching so I dropped him as well for Matthew Liberatore. He is a player I’d really like to discuss as well, but I’m going to save that for Thursday as well as go through my next 5 picks in the draft. This gives proof though we are all capable of making bad draft picks, and while I’m fully confident I know what I’m doing when it comes to fantasy baseball, I love that I can learn and improve on aspects and my knowledge of the sport every season. I believe that every season is an opportunity to get even better, and as a competitor it helps me to want to improve. I do think there are things I learn and get better at each and every season, and if you are a die hard points league player like me you are perfectly capable of the same every season.I can honestly say my first 8 picks were probably as close to perfect as I’ve ever gotten, I clearly made mistakes with my next two picks. One was an injury I couldn’t control or see coming, but I definitely made a mistake that I view as completely my fault taking Xander Bogaerts. It’s also a good example to use and point out that you don’t need to hang onto a player just because he’s owned in 98% of leagues if you don’t actually like him or want him. I have honestly found much better replacements on the waiver wire already in Tyler Soderstrom and Tommy Edman, and was unlikely to ever start Bogaerts. I did send some offers to try and trade him, but eventually dropped him. Dropping a player that you or nobody else wants instead of trying to make someone take them in a trade is almost always a better option. It’s like people feel better like they didn’t make a mistake if they are able to throw in a bad player nobody even wants. If someone does that to me I’m fine taking the throw in as long as I get the main player I want. Then I just drop the throw-in player when he should have been a free agent in the first place. So if you have a player nobody else wants (including you) just drop him. It could be a mistake, and I’ve made plenty, but it’s still much better than feeling trapped like you have to keep them. There are plenty of players people lose patience on and drop way too early, but at this point we already know who Bogaerts is. There is not a higher level of upside that he’s ever going to. As mentioned above, I’ll be back and posting on Thursday, so stay tuned for that. Thanks!