I’ve decided to briefly go through the rest of my draft picks instead of diving deep into the picks, because I think it would be more beneficial to quickly run through the picks and go from there to discuss it in a more philosophical sense of what my strategy as a whole truly is. I draft the way that I do for a reason, because it suits my specific skills the best. The rest of the picks simply aren’t as important as far as the actual players go, as the point of my original plan and strategy to get hitters first and fill out a hitting lineup I don’t have to touch throughout most of the season is built off of my pitching strategy. This way I can focus on pitching throughout the season and improving that when I know my hitting is set and doesn’t need to be changed. It allows me to focus on the part of fantasy baseball that I’m best at. I am much more likely to find good pitching than hitting on the waiver, as the position every year has way more breakouts than hitting does as a whole. So I have the mentality that I will figure out the pitching part of things as I have a track record of doing so. The ironic part is this season I’ve already found a few good hitters and really can focus on pitching now. I’m set up to where I have an extra hitter on my bench that would start on most teams.

To quickly run through the rest of my draft picks, in order they were Grant Holmes, Spencer Arrighetti, Shane Bieber, Dustin May, Royce Lewis, Matt Shaw, Yu Darvish, Drew Rasmussen, and Matthew Boyd. You’ll probably notice mixed results on those picks, but also notice how almost all of them were starting pitchers, and also that I drafted zero closers which is not an accident. Both Holmes and Rasmussen are two starting pitchers who are relief pitcher eligible, and I also find a good closer or two that emerges every year on the waiver wire in free agency. The only hitters I took were upside chances I took on Royce Lewis and Matt Shaw. Lewis has a ton of talent but was available due to injury. His one knock is that he’s almost always hurt, but I thought I could afford to stash him in an IL spot until he returned. That one didn’t work because too many of my pitchers got hurt and I could no longer afford to keep him. Shaw was a popular pick to win rookie of the year, and that one didn’t work either because he got sent down. That was late enough in the draft that they were both worth taking a shot on, and it not working out doesn’t do me much harm. Grant Holmes pitches for a good team and is allowed to throw 100 pitches for the Braves, so I’m very high on him when you factor in his RP eligibility. I’m also very high on Rasmussen, who has been quite the steal so far getting him with my second to last pick. He is also RP eligible, and while the Rays are being very careful with him coming off elbow surgery, he is legit when he’s on the mound and very reliable. He has 22 k’s in 20.2 innings, and his era is 0.87. Even if he has an innings limit and doesn’t pitch the entire season overall, it’s great production I’m currently getting and that’s all that really matters to me. Darvish also got hurt before the season so I dropped him, and while Boyd has actually been good I dropped him as well to chase upside instead. I still own Arrighetti but am stashing him in an IL slot since he is recovering from a broken thumb, It remains to be seen how that one will work out, but as a rookie last season he showed tremendous strikeout potential, striking out 171 in only 145 innings. Bieber is probably the pick in the draft I was most excited about that I view as a great pick. He is coming off elbow surgery and won’t pitch until July, but Bieber is a potential ace I got late enough in the draft where I can keep him for a point next season. I was already planning ahead for that, which is why I took him in the 13th round. I also love the pick because I will get production for him this season, and it will be a great advantage to have for the playoffs as well if I make it. I usually do, and while it’s not a given or a guarantee I approach my teams from a long-term season perspective where I will make the playoffs with a chance to win the league. 

Some of the reasons I don’t invest high draft picks in starting pitchers is that they are much more likely to get injured, and I’ve been burned by it many times before. A bigger reason for my strategy is that I’m confident in my ability to draft good pitchers in the back half of the draft and also pick up a few breakouts throughout the season. My track record speaks for itself, and it’s already been proven out so far this year. In the past, I picked up Corbin Burnes and Spencer Strider the year they each broke out before they were even starting for their MLB teams. I simply trust in my ability to find good pitchers and figure out that part of the team myself. I just have the mentality I’ll take care of that part and don’t really worry that much about it. I will add that I don’t really see anyone else in my leagues adopt this strategy either. I think that works to my advantage, because it’s kind of like the principle of zagging and doing things in a reverse way of how most people run their leagues. In this league specifically but also most points leagues in general people like to stack up on pitching early in drafts, which means there is great value to be had in just taking all the great hitting options in the first 6 or 7 rounds. There is enough pitching to go around, and more breakouts at the position every year than all the hitters combined, so why wouldn’t you draft in this way? Also, I don’t typically endorse stocking up on good closers for saves, there is great value in just waiting for the season to start and picking up closers for good teams. It’s especially a good strategy to use to replace starting pitcher injuries. It’s something I’ve had to do this season, so I picked up Robert Suarez of the Padres and Jose Alvarado who pitches for the Phillies. Suarez probably shouldn’t have been available, as I picked him up for $0 and he’s leading the majors with 10 saves and still has an ERA that’s zero. Alvarado pitches for a good team and gets a lot of save opportunities as well since he already has 5 saves of his own to go along with a 2.53 ERA. I’d also much rather put them in my lineup if the alternative is to use shaky starters who are volatile and don’t have the track record you can trust in. Using closers has grown on me for that reason, because while they can blow saves and get negatives, it happens much less than it does for starters and is a great way to be safe and not have somebody ruin your week and match up by getting -10. So I like to have a couple closers I pick up off the waiver wire that I can turn to and use if I don’t like my other options or don’t feel good about their pitching matchup for that given week. It’s also a valuable way to just buy time while my other starting pitcher pickups that have upside but not the track record to go through those growing pains in my bench where they aren’t hurting my team. Then when they figure it out or get into a groove I will then use those pitchers, I did that with Kris Bubic this year, who I picked up in free agency before the season started when he was announced as the Royals 5th starter. Then I just kept him on my bench, and even when he started looking like an obvious breakout I waited for the week and matchups I wanted before starting him. That was this week, where he got two starts, with one of them being against the Rockies away from Colorado and the other being the Astros. Colorado on the road is possibly the best pitching matchup to get, and he came through with 7 shutout innings where he only allows 4 hits, had no walks and struck out 6. That is easily a WHIP under 1, which is usually my way of measuring if a start was truly successful or not. It’s not usually likely where someone is going to have a WHIP below 1 and it be a bad start that’s not productive for your team. I will eventually get into the underlying analytics I look at and study as well for starting pitchers, but that will be some time in a future post. Other notable potential breakouts I’ve added are Jack Leiter, Hayden Wesneski, Matthew Liberatore, and a few hitters as well in Tyler Soderstrom and Tommy Edman. Jack Leiter is a top prospect whose Dad pitched in the majors as well, and in his first two starts this year finally looked like he was putting it all together, He combined to allow no runs in 10 innings, but his 2nd start got cut short by a blister. He hasn’t pitched since then, but I held onto him because of the promise he’s shown. I’m not the only one who’s done that and waited, as he’s currently owned in 82% of CBS leagues. He is set to return on Sunday or Monday, so let’s see how he looks and pitches when he returns. For some context into these players, both Soderstrom and Edman are now owned in 99% of CBS leagues, Suarez is owned in 95%, and Bubic is owned in 94% of CBS leagues. Wesneski and Liberatore are only owned in 62% and 38%, but if they do break out that’s sure to rise significantly. After all, Bubic was only owned in around 60% of leagues when I originally added him, and Leiter only was owned in around 20% of them. Those numbers don’t necessarily mean everything, but it does show if the industry sees them as breakouts in the end if they are universally owned like Soderstrom and Edman. It’s also worth noting that the highest number of leagues pitchers can be owned in is 98% and not 100. 

I had mentioned in my previous article wanting to focus on and discuss Matthew Liberatore, so I will do so here. He debuted as a highly touted prospect for the Cardinals in 2022, but in his three seasons before now he really struggled to succeed in the majors. It’s worth pointing out that he’s still 25 and not close to the finished product of what he may eventually be. He has shown some signs of a potential breakout this year, and it’s not solely based on results either. I mentioned in my last post that he’s completed 6 innings or more in all 4 of his starts, and has a 24:2 strikeout to walk ratio with a WHIP of exactly 1. He is also throwing harder, as his fastball is now coming in at 95 MPH instead of 93, and while that may seem small, more velocity is always better. He also has a reliable pitch now in the slider, which has produced 11/30 whiffs and 7/23 whiffs, good for an outstanding swinging strike rate of 34% when you combine both stats. There’s no guarantee this works, and he could be off my team as soon as next week with a couple bad starts, but there is reason to be optimistic he can sustain success and that this is no fluke. I actually had no intention of picking him up, but noticed on Saturday that he was pitching into the 7th inning. That was against a good Mets lineup, and while he did get a loss he pitched much better than that and had a quality start as well. So I looked into him some more and decided to pick him up that night when fab ran and added him for $2. His other outing where I referenced his slider whiffs was also against a good team in the Phillies, so he’s been having success against good lineups. It may not work out, but I liked his matchup with the Brewers this week more than the other options I had, so I’m hoping for another successful start. We will see how that one goes and go from there. I’m not certain yet what my article Monday will contain, but will give an update on the starts the Liberatore and Leiter have if he has pitched by then. Leiter pitched well in his rehab start where he struck out 4 in 4.2 innings while only allowing 1 hit, 1 walk and no earned runs. So I expect his next start to come with the Rangers on Sunday or Monday.