Today I’ll be giving some updates on the pitching starts I mentioned of Jack Leiter and Matthew Liberatore, as well as some other pitching-related things I noticed and thought about over the weekend. I’d also like to talk about and analyze a trade I did in my fab league and the reasoning that played into it. I was thrilled with the trade, as it was the exact type of deal I was needing and something I even alluded to in one of my recent posts. To stay on track and on schedule I’d also like to mention what I plan to discuss in my post on Thursday as well just to give a heads up for that. I’ve noticed how a lot of my fundamental strategies are often tweaked or keeper-league specific for my FAB league, and I believe comparing that against how I run my normal redraft leagues could lead to some fun analysis. It’s a good reminder that not all strategies fit into one box, and I always want to make sure the points league advice I give is the best information out there regardless of size or if there are keepers or fab. I’d like to look at things in the context of both kinds of leagues, even if they have to be analyzed separately. A place where there is a clear fundamental difference is in trading and the way I plan and strategize, so I’ll get to that on Thursday. What really brought this idea to light this weekend was comparing Zach Neto to Trea Turner, whose value may be a lot closer to equal in a points league than we realize, regardless of a keeper points league or a traditional redraft points league. I look forward to giving that in depth comparison and sharing what stands out to me.

I’d like to start out with the positives here, so I’ll talk about Matthew Liberatore first. I showed that my belief and trust in him was no fluke, as I liked his matchup this week against the Brewers and decided I’d start him, and he came through for my team in a big way. These moves can often either leave you looking like a genius or feeling really stupid, and it’s definitely a risk that paid off because I might have lost depending on who I would have started in his place. The Brewers are a good team but really don’t have an offense to be too fearful of, as they are a team more predicated on small ball and only have a few hitters who are actually dangerous and capable of doing real damage consistently in the batters box. This start was more of the same of what Liberatore has done all year so far, going 6 innings, giving up 5 hits, 2 runs (1 earned) with 4 strikeouts on 89 pitches, and was able to get the win as well. That’s never a given but is a great bonus in points leagues when you get it. I could write an entire article explaining how much I don’t like wins and losses counting in points leagues and how fluky they are, but I won’t do that here. Definitely a good blog post idea though. Maybe you’d like to see more strikeouts out of Liberatore but I feel that’s a bit nit picky. In and of itself I’ll take that start from him any day where he got 24 points and ended up being a big part of why I won. It was more of the same of what I love seeing from Liberatore, once again going 6+ innings with a WHIP under 1 where he easily could have pitched longer too! An error to open the 7th inning ended his outing, and without that was well on his way to going 7 innings at right around 100 pitches. His velocity is still holding well, as he averaged 94.4 MPH in this one, maxing out at 96.4. His slider only got 4/15 whiffs, but was his most thrown pitch which I really like, and he uncharacteristically utilized his cutter more in this start and I really liked seeing that. He got 3/7 whiffs on that one and had 10 whiffs for the game. I know that’s not the most dominant or exciting start, but the only thing that matters is consistent production, and Liberatore is giving exactly that. I love most of what I’m seeing out of him up to this point in the season, having gone 6 or more innings in all 5 starts, with a 0.97 WHIP in 31 innings with a 28:2 strikeout to walk ratio on the season. I’m feeling really good about him being a potential difference maker as a waiver wire pickup. 

Leiter definitely didn’t have his best start, but it’s worth noting that he did seem rusty and out of sync coming back in his first start off the injured list. He actually settled in and looked fine after the first inning, but his first led to a pretty short outing. Leiter went 3.1 innings, allowing 2 hits, 2 earned runs while walking 4 and striking out 3. I would have liked to see better but I’m also not that worried. It’s not typically a good idea to start someone in their first start back from the injured list unless it’s an ace. It would have been nice to see him pick up right where he left off after his first two starts but was not at all my expectation. He is also currently taking up an injury slot on my bench, so hanging onto him and being patient is really no penalty to my team anyway. I was hoping the Rangers would wait and start him today on Monday, as he would have gotten a two start week and faced the Athletics and Mariners, but that didn’t happen. He will still get the favorable Mariners matchup and I do expect him to pitch much better. 

Jake Irvin stood out to me as a pitcher of note, even if I didn’t pick him up and somebody else did. I do like what he’s doing, but I’d also be hesitant to start him a lot of the year being in the tough National League East. but that hasn’t stopped him so far. He pitched well against the Mets on Friday night, where he pitched 7.1 innings giving up 5 hits, 1 earned run, with 1 walk and 4 strikeouts. Through 6 starts now, he’s thrown 36.2 innings with 31 k’s, with a 1.01 WHIP and 3.19 ERA. He has a lot of the things I look for in a starter, and while I don’t really expect this to last forever for him I still think he’s worth bringing up. He’s definitely giving valuable production right now, and it’s not the first time he’s done that either. Last year he went on a good run in the first half of the season as well, where his ERA in May was 2.45 in 29.1 innings and followed that with a 2.31 in June in 35 innings, so he’s done this before. I knew that someone else would likely get him, but with the schedule and matchups I decided to pick up Ronel Blanco instead, who has a much more favorable schedule. I was looking last week and noticed they have to have the easiest upcoming stretch of games in the next few months for a starting pitcher. I’ll go through it so you can see exactly what I mean, but just this week he has two starts, both favorable matchups coming against the Tigers and White Sox. This addition was a no-brainer to me, as I also had Blanco last year when he delivered great production, scoring 460 fantasy points and coming out of nowhere. Someone in the league got impatient after drafting him way too high and dropped him, and he is also coming off his best start of the season. This is a pickup I’m pretty excited about, and this also goes to show you can make smart pickups without always diving into analytics. Sometimes you’re ahead of the curve just by using common sense and simply looking at the team’s schedules. Going through this run of matchups Blanco and the Astros will be getting, today until June 22nd, in order, they face the Tigers, White Sox, Brewers, Reds, Royals, Rangers, Rays, Mariners, Athletics, Rays, Pirates, Guardians, White Sox, Twins, Athletics, Angels. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen or noticed something like this in my life. Those aren’t all slam dunk matchups but most of them are! The only teams I’d even question starting him against are the Reds, Rangers, and Guardians, and even those three by no means are an offensive juggernaut. So I definitely expect a run of success here, and while I’m not the biggest fan of his teammate Hayden Wesneski, the matchups speak for themselves so I’d like to add him as well. It has me optimistic that Blanco can go on a similar run and have a year like 2024 again. Simply being smart with matchups is another way to get good results with starting pitching, but it also doesn’t mean you can just throw anyone out there. I still like someone pretty consistent where you know they’re highly unlikely to get destroyed and ruin your week with a -15 score or something. A simple exercise I did was to find the good teams in divisions that have bad offenses. For what feels like 15 years this has been the Guardians and the AL Central! For this season, my clear targets are starters who pitch for the Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, and the Chicago Cubs. For example, I don’t have Matthew Boyd but he is a clear value in points leagues. Yes, he’s boring, but he sure is consistent and you know exactly what you’ll get from the veteran lefty. He pitches for a Cubs team that has an elite defense behind him and a great offense as well. Their division isn’t bad, but no other team in the division has a great offense or one close to as good as the Cubs. The Pirates are definitely the easy matchup out of the bunch, but the Reds, Cardinals, and Brewers don’t have much lineup depth either. So Boyd has a great shot at quality starts and wins all season long. I referenced the Guardians division specifically because nobody in that division has a good offense, including Cleveland! So I would say target any pitcher in the AL Central that you’d like, I just picked Cleveland as my leading target because of their nice track record with starting pitching. A lot of the same can be said of the Astros, and I’ve already shown above how favorable their schedule is. I will say the Athletics lineup is much better than anyone expected, but their still a good matchup just like the Angels. Those teams are in their division as well as the Mariners, and any time someone pitches in Seattle it’s a pitchers paradise. As you can see, this type of thinking can go well beyond schedule. If you go off of home ballpark and the most pitcher friendly environment, I love going after Mariners and Tigers pitchers who pitch half their games in Seattle and Detroit. This all goes to show there are many ways to gain and edge and advantage in fantasy baseball, you just have to pay attention and put the time and energy into it.

Finally, I’m most excited to talk about the trade I did. I was able to trade Shane McClanahan for Seth Lugo, and after considering the offer I was happy to accept. I had actually originally offered it to him but withdrew, only for it to be offered back to me a day later. After looking into it, given my starting pitcher injury situation and the fact it’s a points league, this was a pretty easy trade for me to accept. This also goes to show how I’ve grown as a fantasy manager. I used to be way more of a risk taker, and while that has it’s advantages, over the years I’ve learned to be more measured in my approach. At my core, I’m always going to want to be aggressive and win in a competitive setting, but finding the right balance of the right and wrong times to be aggressive is really important. I could have seen my former self trading for a McClanahan type, but I’d never trade for a pitcher now that’s already hurt. It would be one thing if it was a strained hamstring like Spencer Strider, but a lot more plays into it with McClanahan. He got hurt again attempting to come back from Tommy John surgery, and while it was diagnosed as a triceps nerve injury and not anything more serious, there has still been no update as to when he may be back. The Rays also baby their starting pitchers as it is, so even when he’s back he’ll probably average like 75 pitches the entire first month he’s back. Lugo is the total opposite and everything I love and was looking for in a healthy starter. It’s also cool because I specifically mentioned Lugo in that recent post as a possible target to flip an injured pitcher for, and I was able to do exactly that. Last season, Lugo finished 2nd in the majors with 206.2 innings, and scored the 6th most fantasy points for any starting pitcher with 540. He’s basically a poorer version of Aaron Nola, except he even outperformed him last year. Lugo is a workhorse who knows how to be efficient and eat up innings with a long leash from the team, which is the exact opposite of what McClanahan is going to be. Yes, pitch for pitch McClanahan is way more talented and special in comparison to Lugo, but that’s clearly not what’s important here. Lugo also is in the AL Central, which works to his advantage like I already mentioned, and Kansas City has a pretty pitcher friendly home park for him as well. My mentality is usually to always trade for the best player in any deal, but if I’m battling injuries and can flip a currently injured pitcher for a solid floor starter I’m easily accepting that offer. If you are left asking yourself why the other person would offer you that (like I was), it’s probably a good deal for you! His most recent start on Saturday also made me feel even better about the trade, where he threw 8 shutout innings against the Astros, allowing 3 hits and 1 walk to go along with 8 strikeouts, fully displaying why I really wanted him for my team! It’s early in the season, but considering my 0-3 start and pitching injuries I just need to survive and stay in contention until my team is fully healthy. Considering I also won last week and am now 1-3, I’m feeling a lot more optimistic about where I’m at now that I have another usable, reliable starter in Lugo.