I mentioned in my last post how today I wanted to compare and contrast strategies between a traditional redraft points league and a keeper league that also has a redraft. One of the main fundamental differences I’ve found for myself is my mentality with trading and my approach. In a normal redraft league there simply isn’t a downside to sell high and get a sure thing with a proven track record in return. So in theory those types of leagues would really reward those who make impact free agent pickups, because even if you traded them you’re flipping a player you just got for free for something of value. The easiest trades to make in these leagues are the ones where you are taking a sell high candidate and trading him with someone on your team who may even be a good player, but then trading those two to someone who will give you a better player than both in return. The name of the game in a shallow redraft league is to get the best player in the trade every time. I have sold high over the years and really been burned by it at times, but it is a philosophy I fully believe in. Just because it hasn’t worked every single time doesn’t mean I need to change any of that. The best example of this was when I traded Spencer Strider at his peak his first year where he started games in 2022. I knew it was a potentially risky trade, but I traded him for stability and more of a sure thing in Shane Beiber. At the time my reasoning was that even at his best he wasn’t going to stay at his peak and immediately be an ace. Odds would say that’s the right way to look at it, but clearly I was wrong in the end. I was happy with Beiber, but it was really an unnecessary trade as Strider outperformed him and did pitch like an ace the rest of the season. It’s definitely a lesson I had to learn the hard way, but it was a good time to realize that I needed to handle being in a keeper league differently than all the other points leagues I have been in, because the problems of that trade and the mistakes went further than that. The next season Strider was kept for a point and was easily the best 1 point keeper out of them all. So I did regret that mistake, but more than anything what bothered me was being the one to actually find Strider and give him away to someone else who could reap the rewards of something I had found. I was upset with myself for giving someone else that chance.

On the flip side, that example and some other experiences contribute to my adjusted mentality in a keeper league format. I do think my trading strategy for a traditional points league is the correct one, where you want the best player in each trade and are willing to flip most free agents for star players even if those players are on a hot stretch. Even if I believe in a free agent pickup I’d still likely trade him in those leagues. I do think this keeper league format puts more value into being good at finding breakouts on the waiver wire who are then only 1 point to keep the first time. For that reason, this year I have really set out to have the best 1 point keepers that I can find or who have broken out. Let’s take Tyler Soderstrom for example. I own him in my fab league, but there’s little doubt that in a traditional points league he would have been traded to somebody else. Soderstrom is even a player I believe in and like a lot, but if I could flip in a trade for someone like Christian Walker or Christian Yelich. He is also now outfield eligible, so that dual eligibility makes him even more valuable now. On the flip side of that, in this fab league I’m not really even interested in trading Soderstrom because of his keeper potential and value from that standpoint. He’s looking like a valuable one point option, and it’s been in my best interest in this league to get better at looking at the underlying analytics and knowing if their breakout is a flue or not. Nobody is going to be right every time. Keeping Lawrence Butler felt risky given his short track record of elite production, and I now value young players like that in a way that I didn’t in the past. The idea that you can either sell high or be patient in case you have a potential keeper makes it a lot more fun. There is simply something satisfying in finding someone before anyone else or the rest of the industry just feels good and gives you real confidence. 

Comparing these strategies and seeing differences in my own management of them really came from comparing Trea Turner and Zach Neto. In a traditional points league I would just prefer Turner and probably wouldn’t think too much about it. I’d never swap him out for Neto even if it was simply because Turner just looks better in my lineup and not a possible hole. What happened with me in the keeper league was different even for me, but left me feeling excited about the idea and believing I really found something. I was wanting to trade Turner in order to upgrade at shortstop. I thought where I drafted Turner made sense, but I’ve felt for a while now that in points leagues he’s been pretty overrated. Even last year Neto outscored him, even if Turner did miss time. Neto only had 37 more at bats and 17 more points, but their seasons were pretty comparable. When you factor in that it was Neto’s first full season and that he was a top pick in the MLB draft, I almost view the 423 he scored last year as his floor going forward, because he’s only going to keep getting better. Last year he had 23 home runs and his power really started to come on, and he stole 30 bases as well. He was caught 10 times, so he was 30/40, but that shows a willingness and effort to run. That’s what I want to see more than anything else is him showing he wants to be aggressive on the bases. I see Neto as a player putting it together who has 30/30 upside, and I’m also not sure Turner does anymore. His power numbers continue to go down each year, and while he’s stealing more bases this year he’s hitting for next to no power. The vast majority of his hits are singles, and Turner only has one home run this year. Turner was a player I actually liked a lot for most of his career, so it’s not like I all of a sudden hate him. You just have to be able to pivot and navigate it currently when it’s time to move off of a player, because there will come a time at the end of someone’s career where you’ll need something else. You don’t want to be the one who has the player if his production falls off a cliff. I was surprised Neto was even available in this league, and on Saturday before fab ran he went 3-4 with a home run and 3 steals. I knew then that I needed to get him, and while I didn’t need him or even have a starting spot for him, it allowed me the ability to trade Turner and make plans for that. Once I got Neto I started sending offers, and I ended up getting Mookie Betts in a trade that Trea Turner was a part of. Ironically I now still don’t need Neto for shortstop, as I can put Betts there, but love the lineup flexibility it gives me with Betts being eligible in the outfield. So it won’t be hard to get Neto in the lineup if he demands it with his performance, and if there’s an injury at most positions I can shuffle things around to where I can essentially replace their bat with Neto’s. I also noticed that Neto is now batting leadoff at the top of the order, and that’s a valuable development as well. Even if I wouldn’t have gotten a replacement shortstop in the Turner trade I still would have been happy starting Neto since that was my original plan. The reality is that in a keeper format like this where I can plug in Neto then keep him for a point, I had no issue with replacing Turner with him. I view them as comparable, and wouldn’t be surprised either if Neto actually outperforms Turner. I know Turner is the bigger name, but the production would tell you not to waste your time with him if you can get Neto for cheap. Even if we agree Turner is better, is he truly worth picking 150+ spots ahead of him? No, and I’m telling you this as someone who spent one of those high picks on Turner. In the end I don’t regret any of it since it worked out, and that’s the beauty of trading. That you can make decisions and change your mind and get out of them if you’re willing to make reasonable trades.