Today I’d like to dig a little deeper on my pitching strategy and philosophy and my process of what analytics and statistics I typically study and pay attention to. I am learning more and more each year how to hone this strategy, and this season is no different. I believe there is real predictability to breakouts that you can notice before everyone else if you pay attention. The most underrated trait for pitchers in a points league is the ability to go deep into games and rack up innings. Something you won’t hear from even so-called “experts” like Scott White is that it’s more important in a points league than strikeouts. It gets way too much focus overall in a points league when its value is not near the same in comparison to a categories league. I do agree that it can probably be a good indicator of success or possible dominance, but there are plenty of pitchers in the major leagues at any one moment who are succeeding in other ways. Yes, maybe strikeouts are more predictable and reliable but if they are only recommending the highest strikeout pitchers then why do we even need their help or advice for that? If it’s that simple it’s not even useful to look at underlying metrics. That’s why I value guys like Seth Lugo, Chris Bassitt, and Merrill Kelly more than the vast majority of points league owners. 

There has to be a clear balance on your team of stable volume arms with upside arms that aren’t a guarantee to work out well, and I’m going to walk through how I do that and the balance that has to be struck between the two. The high volume arms that are reliable are not always going to be the electric, exciting pitchers but are ones that you clearly need. The one player I have in mind who exemplifies all of this the best would be Aaron Nola. Yes, any pitcher can get hurt at any moment but if you draft Nola you know exactly what you’re getting. Not the most dominance or the most strikeouts or great velocity on his pitches, but he’s reliable and you know you can start him all season. Even if he has struggled to start the season he’s showing that he’s still the same pitcher, with back to back good starts against tough matchups in the Cubs and Diamondbacks. He also has 50 strikeouts in 46 innings which is great to see. Don’t get me wrong, more strikeouts is also better if you can have it, but it’s honestly more what sets apart the best pitchers in the sport since they are usually the best of both volume and strikeouts. If someone is striking out 10 every start but only going 5 innings, that’s not actually that valuable, especially when quality starts add points and going at least 6 innings is crucial. Compared to the above stat line, I’d rather a pitcher go 7 or 8 innings with 7 or 8 strikeouts. That type of start carries much more value in a points league than only 5 innings even if they are dominant innings. Anything close to a strikeout per inning is fine, and even if it’s someone who lacks the strikeouts like Lugo or Kelly it’s not a deal breaker or even that big of a deal. They both have a track record of success where they just know how to pitch deep into games, and both are in a good situation pitching on good teams that play good defense too. Last season Lugo only struck out 181 on 206.2 innings, yet he was the 5th highest scoring starting pitcher and had a season that compares to Logan Gilbert since he had a much better record. He also had an ERA right at 3 with a 1.06 WHIP. Anymore, any pitcher that goes 200 innings or has that potential holds incredible value in a points league. 

I’m going to continue focusing on the safer, high volume starting pitcher strategy here before adding in my strategy and process for high upside pitchers. In an ideal world you want to have at least 4 pitchers who fit this description, and it’s actually easier than you think. There are fringey players who fit this description and are usually undervalued and slept on. You’ve also surely noticed in my past posts how much I value a good WHIP for a starting pitcher. It’s also very valuable in a points league, and this stat really just boils down to how many baserunners a pitcher allows per inning. If they are averaging less than 1 baserunner per inning they are most likely a successful pitcher as long as they don’t have a home run problem. You ideally want starters who have high volume but also have a WHIP that’s at least close to 1. It’s worth pointing out with Nola that he tends to run a higher WHIP around 1.15, but he has such a track record of success that I really don’t worry about with him. He’s shown a great ability to make it work and not be damaging to his value. Sometimes it causes his ERA to be a little high as well, but Nola is a workhorse and is going to be valuable every season. He’s a good bet every season to get to 200 innings or at least very close, and he pitches for a good team as well. 

I say that these players are often not hard to find because on my roster I view Matthew Liberatore as one of these reliable pitchers. Maybe he doesn’t have the track record, but he is displaying skills of a true workhorse. He is doing everything that you want to see with a steady, high volume pitcher, as he’s learning to pitch deep into games consistently. That is best displayed by the fact that in his 7 starts he’s failed to go 6 innings once, and that instance hardly counts when his start was shortened by a rain delay. He’s coming off his best start, where he completed 7 innings for the first time this season and out pitched Paul Skenes. He also has an excellent 0.95 WHIP and is displaying all the qualities of a reliable starting pitcher. The Cardinals also don’t baby him and allow him to throw 100 pitches, which is also notable and is becoming more important by the season. Each year those pitchers stand out more and more because so few of them are even allowed to cross 100 pitches in a start anymore. It gets to a point with some players where the limitations are so pronounced that they offer little value in a points league no matter how good they are. The perfect example of this is Drew Rasmussen, who I actually like and think is good but I ended up dropping him over this sort of thing. He is being babied to the point he’s not even useful. Many believed the restraints would be loosened the more he pitched but that’s not what’s happening at all. My patience ran out his last start when he was pulled after 72 pitches. If we’re almost 2 full months into the season and he’s still not allowed to throw 80 pitches we’re all wasting our time on him. In a 2 start week he got 1.5 points and threw around 150 pitches total. For this profile to be useful Rasmussen essentially needs to throw 5 perfect innings and get a win most of the time, and when he gives up runs and gets losses like he has been, he offers little to no value to your team. So until that changes I don’t want him anymore, and it’s another good example why I often don’t go for Rays pitchers. Especially the ones coming off injury, which is why I jumped at the opportunity to trade McClanahan for Lugo when I was offered it. Even if McClanahan comes back healthy, the Rays will treat him the exact same way and put a clear cap on his value. It’s proof that no matter how good a pitcher is, at this point I prefer the ones who consistently throw 100 pitches and am going to favor them over other starters who don’t. 

So to review, when looking for stable starting pitchers who are likely to stay healthy, look for pitchers who go deep into games and have the potential for 200 innings, who also have a low WHIP. If those statistics match up they are much more worth focusing on than their strikeout total. It’s the same point I made about Bryan Woo in one of my posts a few weeks ago, that he sacrificed strikeouts last year for efficiency and was a much more valuable pitcher in points leagues because of it. Woo is a player I see as a workhorse, but also has the upside and swing and miss potential of a true ace. He has an elite fastball with a great swinging strike rate, and appears to be a pitcher who is now the best of both worlds. What I mean is that he is displaying dominance with efficiency at the same time so far this season. He has upped his strikeout rate this season to a strikeout per inning, but is doing so while keeping his sub-1 WHIP intact. He consistently is pitching deep into games as well, and he’s stayed healthy to this point. Last year he seemed to battle these minor injuries all season long, but so far this season he’s been able to avoid them. Quality starts are important, and don’t forget how valuable a starting pitcher is if he’s given the leash to throw 100 pitches.

Now moving onto upside starting pitching, I first want to point out how I don’t tend to go after the true aces that would cost a first or second round pick. A lot of my reasoning for that is they seem to be the ones most likely to get hurt, and I got burned by it enough that I changed my strategy. Anymore, the only time I end up with aces on my team are ones who didn’t start on my team as aces but developed into one. Meaning so far this season, the player I’d say might be on that track is Bryan Woo. I’m perfectly happy with having Nola and Woo as my best pitchers, and when you combine the fact I also have Matthew Liberatore and Merrill Kelly, it’s a great place to work from. With my strategy it’s important to have great stability while also chasing upside at the same time. Having both is important, because if you go all upside you take on too much risk and it could more easily go wrong for your team. You can also clearly pick up both types of pitchers off the waiver wire at any moment, so it’s smart to learn how to best balance the two. For upside pitchers it’s more important to focus on my strategy and what I look for than it is to look at specific players and names. I’ll definitely list the upside pitchers I have, but first I want to talk about what metrics and stats I look at when looking for potential breakouts. While it doesn’t mean everything and can’t be viewed as factual or flawless, I like looking at their stuff+ on fangraphs. What’s great is that you can now see it in the game logs, as well as their location+ and pitching+. These metrics give numbers for their pitches and locations based on how they compare to the average of pitches in MLB. So anything above 100 for any of these metrics is considered above average, while anything around 100 is close to the MLB average. I believe all 3 of these are important, and while stuff+ seems to be discussed more than the rest, I do value good location and overall values for their pitching and not just how good their pitch movement profiles are.

Some other things I like to look at are FIP, xFIP, and xERA, as well as swinging strike rate and hard contact percentage. I really value pitchers who display good command, and I look for a strike rate of 65% or better. It’s not a deal breaker that it be above that, but it at least needs to be in that ballpark so I know their command isn’t a concern. I really don’t like walks and value a low walk rate very highly. I don’t completely ignore strikeouts, but I format it this way to show it’s very far from what I actually focus on. They are usually better indications on if a pitcher is good or not than simply looking at strikeouts. A low walk rate on its own holds value, you don’t need to know their strikeout minus walk rate to know if it matters or not. If it’s a minor leaguer I do like to know how hard they throw and what pitches they throw. If you are wondering what minor league pitcher would fit the description of what I’m looking for, it would easily be Jacob Misiorowski, whose lesser known than Bubba Chandler but really shouldn’t be. What I especially like is that Nashville, the Brewers triple A affiliate, are allowing him to build up to 100 pitches, as he’s done that in each of his past two starts. This is worth noting because I’m finding that it’s very rare in the minor leagues. A lot of the other prospects I like including Bubba Chandler and Zebby Matthews are never allowed to throw more than 80 pitches, so they don’t even know what it’s like to throw up to 100 pitches. I don’t believe it’s a good formula for success when they get to the major leagues and have no experience building past 80 pitches. They never have them do something, then when they reach the major leagues they will then teach them to go deeper into games? It makes no sense to me, so I prefer Misiorowski for that reason. It’s not the only reason though, as he struck out 11 batters in his last start and is displaying improved command. I added him to my team because I feel he might debut sooner than everyone expects. There were concerns his command wasn’t going to improve enough for him to be a starting pitcher, but when he’s showing improvement while also throwing 100 pitches it’s clear they want him to be a starting pitcher. That development is very exciting, as well as the fact he has a 102 mph fastball with elite extension. He’s 6 foot 7, which explains why he’s struggled with command but also gives him an extension advantage. It’s another attribute that’s not everything but is at least worth paying attention to. Elite extension of 7 feet or more means that the ball is being released that much closer to the plate and the hitter, and when you combine that with elite velocity it gives hitters even less time to react. As a tall, skinny pitcher who throws hard with an elite breaking pitch he really reminds me of Jacob Degrom or Tyler Glasnow.

Lastly, I will name all my upside and stash options on my team as well as the rest of the stable arms on my team so you can have a good idea what that looks like. Then in my next post I’ll dig deeper into how my pitching is set up and the process to having a well-rounded pitching staff on my roster that doesn’t leave me too vulnerable to bad outings and negative points. The longer I do fantasy baseball the more and more I tend to want to mitigate risk and not take huge chances, but I also like to be aggressive and don’t want to lose that. Finding the right balance for yourself is important, as well as knowing yourself well enough to know if you are too aggressive or play it too safe. The starters I have that I classify as reliable who offer a good floor for my team are Aaron Nola, Bryan Woo, Matthew Liberatore, Merrill Kelly, Kris Bubic, and also Shane Bieber as a stash option until he gets healthy. Liberatore, Kelly, and Bubic are all guys I added off waivers in free agency. The upside options I currently have on my team are Grant Holmes, Spencer Arrighetti, Cade Horton, Chase Petty, Jack Leiter, Zebby Matthews, Ryan Weathers, and Jacob Misiorowski. As you can see, a lot of those are prospects trying to figure it out, and I don’t trust most of them to start at the moment. The ones I do use when healthy at least are Grant Holmes and Spencer Arrighetti. Some of those prospects are in the minors, but they have all at least pitched in the majors some, except for Misiorowski. Chase Petty has really struggled in his first two MLB starts, but just like most of these I believe in him long term. At the moment I’m just hanging onto a lot of these guys on my bench until they start showing signs of figuring things out. Then I have Colin Rea as a streaming option for this week, as he gets two great matchups against the Marlins and White Sox while pitching for a good Cubs team. I try to have one of those each week, and this week I’m starting Rea, Holmes, Liberatore, and Kelly all with two-start weeks. We’ll see how they pitch tonight, and I’ll give an update Thursday!