Today I’m going to go over some of the pitching performances that I mentioned at the end of my last article. I’ll be going over the most recent pitching starts from Monday from Merrill Kelly, Grant Holmes, Colin Rea, Matthew Liberatore, and Ryan Weathers who made his season debut on Wednesday. Cade Horton made his debut on Saturday for the Cubs as a bulk reliever, and I’ll give my outlook on him as well as Zebby Matthews.

Merrill Kelly

I’ll start with Kelly, who faced the Giants in San Francisco on Monday and pitched well, with the statline of 7 innings, 8 hits, 1 earned run, 0 walks, and 8 strikeouts, with 12 whiffs on 103 pitches while earning the win. I got exactly what I was wanting in this start from Kelly, who came through in a favorable matchup. Outside of one bad start against the Yankees, Kelly has been solid all year and this was one of his better starts as well. He had a WHIP just over 1, but also had more strikeouts than innings pitched which is great to see. Since he went deep into the game and also earned a win, he scored 26 points in his first start in a two-start week. He’s in good shape to have a very impactful week in fantasy with the second matchup being against the Rockies at home in Arizona. It honestly should be a start with similar production, and with another win could get 50 points this week. In order to give a round number, a good rule of thumb to use as a baseline for a successful start is 13 points, since pitchers make an average of 32 starts per season, which would add up to 416 points. You really only need a pitcher to get to 400 points to be successful, and while you only have to average 12.5 points I’d rather use the next whole number above that. The reason I use 400 as my measure of success is that just last year, for example, only 33 starting pitchers reached 400 points in 2024. I mention all that to say Kelly was well above that, but in a successful start you hope for at least 20 since a pitcher is more likely to score closer to 25 in a good start with a win or closer to zero in a bad start with a loss, rarely scoring exactly in the middle at 13 points. As it stands now it was worth spending the $10 to add Kelly, as he was set up to have a big week and be someone I want to hang onto going forward. I’m optimistic his second start will be a success as well, so he has a good shot at a 40+ point week.

Grant Holmes

6.1 innings, 4 hits, 1 earned run, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts, 11 whiffs on 79 pitches ND. Holmes may have had a low strikeout total here, but with the way he has underachieved so far this season gives me the perspective to happily take this production against the Nationals. He produced a WHIP under 1 in this start and I’ll always take that. I was hesitant to start him this week as he’s been so inconsistent, but after 1 of his 2 starts this week I’m happy with how it’s panned out so far. He should have earned a win, but lost it on the potential last out when the shortstop overthrew the first baseman and airmailed it into the dugout, scoring 2 runs to tie the game. As an aside, if I ever run a league one day wins and losses will not count for any positive or negative points, as it’s truly luck of the draw, and so often players get wins who deserve losses, and are saddled with losses that should be wins. In that world I’d be fine with this stat line and no decision, as he still scored 21 points, but even this example goes to show why putting this much value in a win or loss doesn’t make much sense. Maybe people think this kind of variance makes it more fun, but I’m not one of those people. I’d rather players get what they deserve more often, and to get rid of variance and base fantasy baseball even more on skill. I’d get rid of the things like that that create good and bad fortune, and would have a points league formatted more for the season where the highest scorer simply wins the league instead of weekly head-to-head leagues. Maybe one day I’ll be able to create such a league. Holmes gets a much tougher matchup in his next start, facing the Red Sox in Boston.

Colin Rea

6.2 innings, 6 hits, 2 earned, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts, 6 whiffs on 98 pitches, W. I won’t spend a lot of time on Rea, as he’s so far served his purpose as a streamer I’ll most definitely drop on Sunday. He’s a pitcher who offers no real upside or staying power outside of good matchups. That’s also why I picked up Rea a week in advance, as I saw he’d get two matchups this week hosting the lowly Marlins and White Sox. Rea came through with a quality start and a win, though he’d have had an even more successful start had it ended after 6 innings. He was likely left in a bit two long, as a 2 run homer from the last batter he faced ended his night on a sour note. Rea still provided plenty of value in this start, scoring 22 points and earning a valuable win. It’s definitely an overvalued stat, but I’m always going to be happy when my pitcher earns a win. Kelly, Holmes, and Rea combined for 69 points all with another start on deck, so it’s been a success so far.

Matthew Liberatore

5.1 innings, 7 hits, 2 earned, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts, 11 whiffs on 80 pitches, ND. This start did not turn out as well as I’d hoped, but I’ll take it considering this was a tough matchup on the road against the Phillies. He was far from as dominant or crisp as he has been in most of his starts, but he hung in there against a good offense and held his own. He avoided a loss and negative points in the start he had this week that I was worried about. When considering the context I will take his 8 points with a second start upcoming this week where he faces the Royals in Kansas City. Let’s hope he can get back to going 6+ innings, something he’s done in 6 of 8 starts this season.

Ryan Weathers

5 innings, 2 hits, 1 earned, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts, 10 whiffs on 76 pitches, W. This is probably the start I’m most excited about, as Weathers was finally able to make his season debut. In the spring he was earning a lot of hype for the way he was pitching, with gains in velocity to where he was averaging 97+ on his fastball. All that buzz ended when he went on the injured list before the season started with a forearm strain.  I watched this start, and while I didn’t start him he really looked good in a tough matchup against the Cubs at Wrigley. He was able to shut them down and cruised in this one, and even touched 99 with his fastball. He showed the same velocity in his final rehab start, so it’s nice to see it carry over here. I’m pretty high on Weathers and can see him making a real impact with his electric arsenal, and while he may pitch for a bad team he pitches in a great home park that’s pitcher friendly for sure. At least for one start, even the Marlins didn’t stop him from earning a win. He scored 20.5 points, and I don’t know how you could have wanted anything more out of his first start back from injury. He gets another tough matchup next week, facing the Cubs again but this time in Miami. I may sit him again and wait for a more favorable matchup where he’s built up his pitch count a little more as well. 

Prospect Outlook –

Cade Horton

MLB debut: 4 innings, 4 hits, 3 earned, 0 walks, 5 strikeouts, 9 whiffs on 77 pitches, W. I was able to watch most of his outing, but he followed an opener and pitched in bulk relief. That’s why he was able to still earn the win despite only going 4 innings in this one. Considering he was facing the Mets in New York, I came away from this feeling pretty optimistic about Horton. Yes, his ERA was a bit high, but when you consider everything else I still came away thinking this was a positive debut. He managed to have a WHIP of exactly 1, and struck out 5 in 4 innings. The one blemish happened on a 3-run home run, making this appearance look much worse than it actually was. I keep hearing the knock that he only has two pitches, but I’m not willing to bury him for that. It’s also not true, he just rarely throws his curveball or changeup at the moment. I like to believe he will learn to use a larger arsenal in time, and I like his fastball as it behaves like a cutter movement wise. Also, whether anyone believes in Horton or not, he has a great upcoming schedule, facing the White Sox, Marlins on the road, and the Rockies in Chicago. I don’t know how you could draw up a better trio of matchups for a rookie, as he’s been announced as the starter for Friday’s game against the White Sox. I really like what the Cubs have done here, and it feels like a strategic move. They were able to mostly protect him against the Mets, and now Horton is set up for success with three favorable matchups in a row.

Zebby Matthews

Regarding Zebby Matthews, it was just announced today that he will be called up to start Sunday for the Twins and will join the starting rotation. The Twins look to have made a real commitment by optioning Simeon Woods-Richardson to triple A and promoting Matthews to take his spot in the rotation. It’s a very exciting development, as I was starting to wonder if he was going to get a shot any time soon or not. There was also the problem of David Festa looking to be ahead of him in the pecking order at triple A, so it’s nice to see the organization recognizing Matthews is the better option. I had spent $10 to pick up Zebby a few weeks back, and I did that based on rumors that he was going to be called up to start. That didn’t happen, but it’s a relief to see I was just a few weeks early and didn’t waste a chunk of my fab budget for no reason. I’m a big believer in Zebby Matthews, and was last year as well when he debuted, even though that didn’t pan out. This year, he picked up where he left off last year in triple A, improving his velocity without sacrificing command, even touching 99 mph with his fastball. He showed impeccable command last season, only walking 7 in 97 minor league innings. This season, Matthews has 9 walks in 32 innings, with 38 strikeouts and an ERA of 1.93. Last year Matthews really struggled in the major leagues, with a 6.69 ERA in 37.2 innings, but I really believe he will succeed this time. I do know that I don’t like the way the Twins won’t even allow him to reach 80 pitches, but hopefully that will change soon enough if Zebby is successful in his role with the team. He will debut on Sunday against the Brewers, and I look forward to going over his start on Monday as well as the rest of my starting pitching.