Starting pitching summaries and outlooks for Merrill Kelly, Matthew Liberatore, Ronel Blanco, Grant Holmes, and rookie prospects Jack Leiter, Cade Horton, and Zebby Matthews.

Merrill Kelly: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K, QS, 17 Whiffs on 109 pitches 1.69 xERA. I had mentioned in my last article how I was optimistic Kelly would come through in this spot, and I honestly don’t see how this start could have gone better. I’m thrilled I was able to win him in fab off of waivers, and definitely got to reap the rewards as he scored 58.5 in a two-start week. It’s by far the best week I’ve had out of any pitcher, while the only week close to it actually happened to be this week as well, when Bryan Woo scored 48 in a two-start week as well. Outside of one start on the road against the Yankees where he gave up 9 runs, Kelly has been stellar. If you take out that start, Kelly has a 1.99 ERA, but even if you include the start it’s still now a respectable 3.26 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP. He has offered the exact stability I’ve needed, while also displaying a higher upside in strikeouts than I thought he had. He’s not an ace and never will have that ceiling, but he’s pitching at his peak right now and that’s all you can ask for. He’s been a perfect replacement for Seth Lugo, and considering he’s hurt I would even prefer Kelly at this point. I will continue to start him this week, although he gets a tougher matchup than you would have originally thought in the Cardinals, and will actually be facing Matthew Liberatore, the next pitcher I’ll be talking about. Kelly has been a stable innings eater, which holds incredible value in a points league. He also pitches for a good team and it showed this week, as he picked up two wins. He actually only got 3 total runs of support in his two games, but he pitched so well that he still managed to earn 2 wins, only giving up a single run in 14 innings of work this week.

Matthew Liberatore: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, QS, 8 Whiffs on 92 pitches (ND) 2.63 xERA. This was more of the same from Liberatore, earning another quality start and only giving up 1 run. He had a WHIP just over 1, but I’ll take this all day. I’m trying not to take his current reliability for granted, as it may not last forever. At the moment, though, he continues to show elite command and pitch efficiently enough to go 6+ innings in each start. As previously mentioned, he will face Merrill Kelly and a tough Diamondbacks lineup, but he has pitched well at home. At the moment, I don’t have a ton of great options for the week and am still planning on starting both Kelly and Liberatore. I like how these two have been exactly what I’ve wanted so far, producing WHIP’s right at 1 and earning a lot of quality starts. Liberatore didn’t earn a win this week, but in two matchups against good teams I’m pleased with how he pitched this week. The velocity was down a little bit in this start and not at 95 like I want to see, but I’m not going to worry too much about it if he continues to give this sort of solid production. I think Liberatore continues to be very underrated, as he’s relief pitcher eligible which adds incredibly valuable. With all that he has going for him, he’s still only owned in 86% of leagues. So he’s still being slept on and available in some leagues out there. 

Ronel Blanco: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, QS, 14 Whiffs on 92 pitches (L) 6.11 xERA. I will mostly take this kind of start from Blanco, although it really hurts his production when he earns a loss like this. I didn’t start him this week, but this was the 2nd start out of his last 3 where he had a quality start and earned a loss. Blanco is another one where I don’t understand his steady production mostly going unnoticed. I owned him last year where he scored 460 points and was a great value to my team. This year, his underlying stats are actually much better than they were even last year. Last year he outperformed those metrics, but this year it’s flipped the other way and he’s underperformed those metrics so far. Last season, Blanco had a 2.80 ERA and a 4.00 expected ERA, and this season he has a 4.10 ERA with an expected ERA of 2.95. That’s good enough for 82nd percentile, as he continues to be slept on. Blanco is always going to carry a higher WHIP and more walks than you like to see, but he has 3 great secondary pitches which is very rare. He also has an elite 15.2% swinging strike rate, up from 14.1% last year. I watched this start, and in those 2 of 3 starts he’s lost, the big blow has been a 2-run home run. So he’s had a bit of an issue in that area, having allowed a home run in 3 of his last 4, but he’s also recorded a quality start in 4 of his last 5 starts, and has only given up more than 3 runs once all season. He has also pitched much better at home this season, so I’m inclined to start him this week at home, even if it’s against a good Mariners offense. In 5 home starts Blanco has produced a 2.73 ERA and 0.81 WHIP, while earning 33 strikeouts in 29.2 innings. In contrast, his ERA on the road is 6.27, so hopefully he can figure out how to pitch on the road like he does at home. All in all, Blanco looks even better than the version of him last year, and he’s once again proving to be very productive. He is only owned in 87% of leagues, and I say only simply because he should be rostered everywhere just like Liberatore.

Grant Holmes: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, QS, 13 Whiffs on 99 pitches (ND) 5.83 xERA. You can see that Holmes may have gotten much better results than he earned, but he only gave up 3 hits and once again that wasn’t the problem. He earned the quality start with a strong 6th inning, but leading up to that he really struggled, and walks once again were an issue. In the end I was pleased with Holmes coming away from Fenway with a quality start, as I was a bit worried about this start. He managed to pitch well enough to position himself for a win, but the bullpen once again blew the lead for him, this time losing a 4 run lead. It’s supposed to be an advantage and potential for a higher win chance being on the Braves, but they almost find ways to make sure Holmes doesn’t get any wins. Considering he didn’t get any wins, I was glad with how he did this week, as he still was useful and scored 32.5 points. With a couple of wins he would have had a week like Woo, but the reality is that means he pitched really well this week, even if it flies under the radar. Holmes will continue to have a tough schedule, as he faces the Padres next, then the Phillies, then the Diamondbacks. It seems that he’s been on the wrong side of the schedule all year, seeming to always get the tough matchups. When you consider that his 4.01 ERA is honestly respectable in my eyes. So far this season he has faced the Dodgers twice, the Phillies, Twins, Diamondbacks, and the Red Sox on the road. He’s only given up 36 hits in 51.2 innings, so when you consider that with his schedule he can clearly pitch and take down good lineups, he just needs to start walking less batters.

Jack Leiter: 7 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, QS, 9 Whiffs on 87 pitches (ND) 3.33 xERA. Leiter pitched well in this one and honestly deserved a lot better. I watched this start, and the umpire was really bad and cost Leiter here in a lot of ways. It started out bad enough when both managers got mad at the umpire in the very first inning and the opposing manager was even ejected. Both of his walks should have resulted in strikeouts, but strike 3 was called a ball each time. On one of the hits, what should have been a 5th strike in the at bat ended up as a hit. It’s really unfortunate, and goes to show how much better this start could have looked. It’s especially frustrating when his second walk in the 8th inning that should have been a strikeout  ended his night, and the reliever who came in made sure to give up both inherited runners and blow the lead for Leiter and the Rangers, So there is a scenario where Leiter would have had no walks and could have completed 8 innings while giving up 1 run. For a rookie like Leiter in the longest start of his career, it feels unjust when he should have gotten at least 1 out for sure in the inning. I am not sure what MLB is keeping or saving by continuing to have umpires so they can continue to get calls wrong. When we can all see on the TV what’s a ball and strike on every pitch, maybe the one person who can’t see that shouldn’t be the one calling balls and strikes. Obviously I am salty about this one, but I’m not wrong either. With all that said, I see this as a good start that could have been much better. I’m not going to hold two walks against Leiter when anyone watching could have seen they shouldn’t have happened. All in all, this was an encouraging week and two starts where he finally got back on track. I didn’t start him, but he produced two quality starts and scored 42.5 points. When you consider everything else, he could have scored 50+ for the week. This week he gets the White Sox in what should be an easy enough matchup that he can take advantage of, so I will start him there.

Cade Horton: 5 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 6 Whiffs on 79 pitches 4.87 xERA. I won’t spend as much time on these final two prospects, as the sample size so far is small and inconclusive as far as if this will work out positively or not. I honestly expected a little more from Horton here, as he got a dream matchup against the White Sox and wasn’t able to dominate in the way I had hoped. Horton is still showing his value, as he’s given up 3 runs in each of his first two starts but has earned two wins. So he’s reaping the benefits of pitching in front of a good defense with a lineup that produces plenty of run support. I do expect that part to continue, and while he may be a risky start he will continue to be useful. His great schedule continues, as he gets the Marlins this week in pitcher friendly Miami, and then faces the Rockies at home in Chicago. If Horton stays on schedule and in the rotation, after that he will get two more good matchups in a two-start week, getting the Nationals and Tigers both on the road. Detroit does have the best lineup of the bunch and is a good team, but it helps that this game is in Detroit which is also a pitcher friendly park.
Zebby Matthews: 3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 6 Whiffs on 71 pitches (L) 5.77 xERA. I was really looking forward to this start from Zebby, and while it didn’t end up going well he did start out looking really good for what it’s worth. In the first inning, he actually struck out the side in order and had only given up 1 run with no walks through 2 innings. In the third inning he seemed to completely lose his feel and his command, walking the bases loaded and giving up 3 runs in the inning. We got to see both sides of Zebby in this start, having the ups with his good command and the downs where he seemed to completely lose it. He did show an ability to be successful and have an impact with good command, and this is a great example of the risk we all take in starting rookie starting pitchers. The risk is that they can be doing well and can quickly unravel out of nowhere. Once that happens they are usually unable to get back on track, and pitchers have to learn to succeed and get outs even when they don’t have their best stuff or command. To be clear, I didn’t start him here and don’t plan to any time soon. I won’t hang on too tight though, because if I don’t see him as usable I don’t think it’s worth hanging onto for more than a couple of weeks.