Over my many years of doing fantasy baseball there has been a lot of stuff lost along the way that I’d argue made it much better. Before the world where everything became so analytical it felt like there was more purity, with people being more open to trades and not using the exact same information. It was normal for owners to simply use their own judgment and who they simply felt was better. Even my enthusiasm for trading is not what it used to be, and I’m even good at making trades happen. Even as someone who has become analytics driven myself and an addict to researching baseball, I reflect and wonder what has been lost from the owner I used to be. Even pitching has completely evolved into something that makes the fantasy baseball experience less fun. This isn’t simply a way to tear down fantasy baseball, as that would be counterproductive for me. I will always love fantasy baseball points leagues and enjoy it no matter the circumstance, but I can’t deny the way it’s changed drastically. 

I bring up starting pitching because I haven’t liked its direction in a while, where even throwing 100 pitches has become this rare feat. Anymore we’re happy if a pitcher stays healthy and reaches 150 innings which is kind of pathetic. We are now pleased when a starter reaches 5 innings, and a complete game is like winning the lottery. I miss the days where you knew Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander would carry you and were easily worth a top 5 pick. It’s not all negative, as I do believe things are swinging back the other way, where teams are needing to limit bullpen usage and push their starters to eat up more innings. Efficiency is finally being stressed in a more obvious way, with the rarity of high volume efficient pitchers with a long leash for 100 plus pitches becoming increasingly important to me. That’s how I bring this discussion back to the present, where my evaluations of pitchers have focused more on efficiency than dominance and strikeouts. It’s great when you have both, but a pitcher with a low innings total and a bunch of strikeouts isn’t that interesting to me in a points league context or even a real life baseball context. As I move my focus back to the present and today’s players, let’s not completely dismiss how we feel in our hearts when comparing two players, analytics aside. 

I want to give some examples of ways I do go based on simply what I think and use my own judgment without reliance on analytics. In my reflection there is a definite balance I strike between the two, where the true studs in the sport are given known commodities and don’t really need digging under the hood or analytical research. I notice how in trades and drafting I don’t actually use analytics that much as I simply look at stats and create my own rankings. The times I dig most into analytics is when I’m analyzing free agents and trying to find the breakout players or ones showing improvement. The example I’ll point to this week did involve waiver wire players, as I initially had scouted out and planned to pick up and start Rhys Hoskins, as I saw he was producing and was set up for a good week, with 7 games this week against some pretty weak starting pitching. 

Those plans changed when I saw Jordan Beck leading off for the Rockies and producing a huge game on Saturday where he homered twice and tripled as well. It prompted me to change course and chase the upside, as Beck happened to have 7 home games at Coors Field in Colorado this week. A massive game for Beck is also not news, as earlier this season he hit 5 home runs in a two game span. The possible ceiling for him leading off for 7 games in Colorado was too intriguing for me to pass up. The usual analytics I follow told me this wasn’t the best idea, as Beck does have a high swinging strike rate that’s over 15% that leads to some strikeout issues for Beck. I knew that Hoskins was the safer play and probably the correct call, but I wanted to chase the upside with Beck and felt like he was a much more exciting option. Hoskins may be boring, but he’s once again showing the consistency in production that made him so valuable when he played for the Phillies. So far, it’s played out that I potentially made a mistake, but I did at least add both players over the weekend. I just chose Beck, and so far through 3 games Hoskins has 15 more points than Beck. I still find Beck interesting though, as I think any player capable of those ceiling games where they can score 15 to 20 points in a single game is worth monitoring. After all, those are the types of games that typically set apart the truly elite hitters, where a huge game or a couple of them in a week can win you a matchup. With that in mind, there is still an opportunity and time for Beck to have a game or two like that and outscore Hoskins. I understood going into it that I chose the high risk, high reward option over the safe, logical choice, but I followed my heart here. That can either work out or not, as I knew there was a chance Beck could score close to zero points or 40 this week, and that Hoskins was likely to score 20 points minimum, which he has already done. In general, I do place a lot of weight on when a hitter is leading off, as it leads to more volume in at bats over the course of a week. I do still believe Beck has real upside with his power potential, especially if his chase rate improves. His above average chase rate is the main contributor to his high strikeout rate. Usually in a points league where I want consistency I lean towards someone like Hoskins who have good plate discipline and have a low chase rate. For that reason I will likely start Hoskins going forward. Check back in next week to find out who ends up scoring more this week between Hoskins and Beck!