Remember when I said Zach Neto was a better fantasy shortstop than Trea Turner? Turns out that was just the warm-up. After watching Neto’s breakout unfold, I started digging deeper and what I found was startling. His rookie-year numbers stack up almost perfectly with Bobby Witt Jr.’s. Same profile. Same speed. Same trajectory. If this holds, we’re looking at a future top-25 pick, maybe even higher. If he keeps this pace, I would predict he is picked in the first 2 rounds even next season. I believe Neto is the most slept-on and underrated breakout, as he’s putting up elite production up to this point in the season, and he’s not even universally owned in CBS leagues, as his own percentage is just up to 94% at the moment. Also speaking of underrated, let’s talk about Ryne Nelson. The Diamondbacks may be on the verge of making a big mistake once Eduardo Rodríguez returns. Benching Nelson would be ignoring one of the most quietly effective arms in baseball right now.

It became apparent rather quickly that I had made the right decision in trading away Trea Turner and adding Zach Neto to replace him, as it worked out much better than even I had anticipated. It has been quickly becoming clear to me this is much more than that, and I need to put in perspective what he is doing because I haven’t seen anyone else do it yet. The more I’ve studied Neto and considered him in the context of the shortstop position, it’s becoming clear to me his production matches that of the elite players at the position. His best comparison is clearly Bobby Witt Jr., and I’m going to tell you why. Witt is viewed as the consensus best player at the shortstop position, but there is no better comp for Neto at the position. I don’t think it will take long for people to catch on to this either, since it definitely didn’t with Witt himself. It may not be the best comp in every way, but that rarely exists if ever. I’m in no way saying Neto has arrived and is already on the level of Witt, I’m just simply pointing out how Neto appears to be on that same path to stardom at the moment. 

To start off, last season doesn’t technically count as the first season for Neto, but it was clearly his first full season. Witt on the other hand, played a full season right away when he debuted in 2022. It’s worth pointing out that both players were picked in the first round in the top 15 and have that pedigree. Witt was taken 2nd in 2019, and Neto was taken 13th overall in 2022. That’s worth mentioning, since it also provides the context that Witt debuted 3 years after he was drafted at age 21, and Neto debuted the very next year after being drafted at age 22. If you actually look, their debut ages were only 4 months apart, with Neto being slightly older. So when you compare the similar seasons of Witt in 2022 and Neto in 2024, all that context matters. While the season took place for Witt when he was 2 years younger than when it happened for Neto, it’s important to add that it happened for Witt 3 years after he was drafted and only took Neto 2. All that is to say it’s valid to compare these two seasons of these two players. I’ll start with Witt, who in 2022 slashed 0.254/0.294/0.428 with 20 home runs and 30 steals while being caught 7 times. In 150 games he scored 436.5 fantasy points in 591 at bats, good for 2.9 fantasy points per game. He also had 30 walks and 135 strikeouts. In 2024 in Neto’s first full season, he slashed 0.249/0.318/0.443 with 23 home runs and 30 steals while being caught 10 times. In 155 games he scored 422 fantasy points in 542 at bats, with an average of 2.7 fantasy points per game. He also had 39 walks and 140 strikeouts. I went so in-depth to show how shockingly similar their stats were in their first full seasons. Even the strikeout and walk numbers are strikingly similar. To take it a step further, Witt scored 0.74 points per at bat while Neto scored 0.78 points per at bat. The closeness in their numbers proves that Neto is a worthy comparison to Witt. This is also in no way to take away from Witt than it is to show Neto may end up in his same class as a top 2 option at the position.

Fast forward to how it’s continued to play out this season and the comparisons today still don’t stop. This season, both players are tied for 3rd at shortstop with an identical 3.5 fantasy points per game. These rankings fluctuate as the season plays out, but there were even points I saw where Neto was averaging the most per game scored at the position. I even saw a graphic last night that the only 3 players in the American League with 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in the last 162 games played are Jose Ramirez, Bobby Witt Jr., and Zach Neto. The only other shortstop to put up those numbers with Witt and Neto is Francisco Lindor, another top shortstop who was taken in the top 5 in my league this season. It hasn’t been a topic of conversation I’ve seen anywhere yet, but Neto is on the trajectory to be a top 25 pick next season, and is very worthy of a 1 point keeper in my league as well. Neto is putting together an elite season, and has been the most productive hitter on my team outside of Jose Ramirez. He’s even matched Ramirez, and I also have a team with Mookie Betts on it. This breakout is happening, and I wanted to be the one to point out that Neto’s best comp is Bobby Witt Jr., and that the stats back it up. Sometimes elite hitters emerge that started the season on the waiver wire, and Neto is a clear example of that. To be fair, Neto probably shouldn’t have been on the wire and was slept on because he missed the first 16 games of the season making his way back from shoulder surgery.

Now let’s talk about Ryne Nelson, a young pitcher who appears to have all the skills of a good starting pitcher long-term. The sad part I believe is that the Diamondbacks have often been the ones getting in the way of this. They have now done this in back to back years where they are stuck with a struggling starting pitcher they are paying real money when they have a great alternative in Nelson. Last year it was Jordan Montgomery who was the disaster, and this year it’s Eduardo Rodriguez. It’s the classic example in the sport of a better player not getting the spot since the team has more money tied up in the veteran starter. Nelson has gotten this shot again due to a Rodriguez injury, but he’s working his way back and sounds like Nelson will again be removed from the rotation. Also, when the Diamondbacks are a team trying to win and make the playoffs, it would even be in their best interest to keep Nelson in the rotation. The money angle is the only thing that makes sense, since common logic would never tell you to remove Nelson who is in a nice groove for a pitcher who has a 7.05 ERA this season in 44.2 innings. In his last start on Monday, Nelson threw 6.2 scoreless innings, only allowing 4 hits with 4 strikeouts, earning the win on 84 pitches. Nelson now owns a respectable 3.79 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, with 34 strikeouts in 38 innings. 

This is also not the first run of success he’s been on as a starter, as last season he was removed as the starter after a more sustained stretch of success. He had an eleven start stretch last season where he produced a 2.76 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 75 innings with 75 strikeouts and 14 walks. That is honestly elite production, and Nelson deserves this opportunity to stay in the rotation. If the Diamondbacks aren’t going to do that, my wish would be that Nelson goes to a team that will keep him in the rotation and not move him back and forth all the time. Nelson would be viewed as a true deep sleeper, which is another reason why I wanted to focus on him. He has an elite fastball which is a great foundation for any young pitcher to start from. Bryan Woo and Joe Ryan are great examples of starters who produce at an elite level with an elite fastball as their primary pitch. All the tools for a successful starter are there for Nelson, and he’s also had a lot of success as a starter. In these two starts he’s gotten, Nelson has 0.77 ERA with one of those starts even coming against the Dodgers. Even though he is only owned in 13% of leagues, I liked the matchup and trusted him enough to start him in that Pirates matchup, and he came through with 28 points. He also pitches for a good team with a good defense behind him, so if he finds a way to stay in the rotation I could see him having another successful run as a starter. I would definitely recommend adding him just in case that happens. While my Povich optimism has ended very quickly after another rough start, I’m much more confident in the path to success for Nelson.