“Quick Hits: Ryne Nelson’s Rotation Window, Neto Check-In, and a Few Names I’m Circling”

Some weeks I sit down with a clear thesis and a hot take ready to go. This week’s different—but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to say. In fact, the middle of the season is when roster edges are made in the margins: watching a guy like Ryne Nelson sneak into a rotation spot, noticing a shift in Zach Neto’s approach, or quietly adding a name to your watch list a week before everyone else. Here are a few quick hits on what’s caught my eye lately, and why it might matter in Points formats.

Ryne Nelson – Opportunity Knocks

Ryne Nelson has continued to impress, and there is a very important development happening that may keep him in the rotation after all. He started last Monday, then ended up pitching in relief on Saturday, where he threw 4 more scoreless innings. Nelson had been informed he’d be moved back to the bullpen, then the Corbin Burnes injury happened on Sunday. He felt pain in his elbow and immediately left the start and it did not look good. There is yet to be an update, but rarely does something like this happen where the pitcher isn’t out a few months minimum, even if they avoid surgery. It’s very similar to what happened to Shane McClanahan in March, and he’s still not close to returning. This opens the possibility back up to keep Nelson in the rotation, where he has excelled. In his last 3 appearances that includes 2 starts and this recent relief outing, Nelson has only given up 1 run in 15.2 innings. He may only have 7 strikeouts in that span, but he’s been so efficient and so effective in avoiding hard contact that I’m mostly brushing that off at the moment.

Nelson will face the Reds this week in Cincinnati if he does slot back into the rotation, and if it gets confirmed before lineups lock I plan on starting him. It may be a tough park to pitch in, but even at home the Reds offense can struggle, and with the groove Nelson is in I’m inclined to start him until he gives me a reason not to. If he is in the rotation for a while, he will then get the Mariners at home then the Blue Jays in Toronto. They aren’t the best matchups, but also not bad enough to scare me away from starting Nelson assuming he keeps up this dominance, If you’d like more information on Nelson and why I like him, I’d advise taking a look at my last post where I already discussed it extensively. A lot of my mentality to continue starting Nelson stems from that 11 start stretch last year where Nelson was dominant for over two months straight. So when he gets in a good groove, it has the potential to last a long time since he’s already proven it. He also gained RP eligibility, as his relief appearance Saturday happened to be his 10th one. Nelson may only be owned in 13% of leagues, but if he’s in the rotation for a while that will surely change. Considering I’m in a 10 team points league, I clearly believe he should be rostered everywhere.

Zach Neto – The Quietest 30/30 Watch?

Neto has really cooled off in the past week, but he still homered on Monday and got a hit in 5 of 6 games, and showed signs of getting out of it Sunday when he reached base twice. He hasn’t been as aggressive stealing bases lately, but I expect that to change. From what I’ve seen, he simply hasn’t been in many situations recently that would call for stolen base attempts. I am truly not concerned at all, and if his cold stretch looks like this and doesn’t last very long I can definitely live with that. Even the best hitters get cold, but the best ones also tend to come out of it quickly as well. He is still severely underrated and it continues to shock me! He’s the 13th ranked shortstop and should be in the top 8 minimum. His roster rate is still holding at 93%, and I expect him to be fully rostered and ranked inside the top 10 on CBS if he has another hot stretch any time soon. He’s still in striking distance of a 30/30 season with his current base, and should easily get to 20/20. Neto is not yet a lock to be a 1 point keeper for me, but it’s highly likely and if I had to decide today I would keep him, along with Jose Ramirez and a starting pitcher like Shane Bieber. If you are worried about Neto at all, his expected slugging percentage is still currently 0.558 and his xWOBA is 0.374. I think it’s worth pointing out, as the hardest thing to find at the shortstop position is this kind of power.

Watch List Corner – Two Names I’m Monitoring

Now let’s talk about two players I’m watching closely: Addison Barger and Jonathan Aranda. It’s fitting to talk about both players together, since they are in very similar situations. Both are left-handed hitters who clearly mash right-handed pitching, but are trying to break out of a platoon where they rarely start against lefties. It’s really the only thing in their profiles working against them, but let’s dig deeper to see what’s really going on here. One thing that clearly separates these two is roster rates, as Barger is the much deeper sleeper play here. Aranda is owned in 82% of leagues, while Barger is only owned in 29%. It’s worth adding that both are coming off of 30+ point weeks, and their roster rates are both rising. Both were highly-touted prospects so they have that going for them as well. 

I have already added Aranda and am starting him this week, as he started in all but one game last week and was even in the lineup against a lefty. He delivered a RBI double against a lefty, which is a great sign to see. He only faces one lefty this week, and has all his games at home where he’s been on fire this season. In his home games, Aranda has 4 home runs and 22 RBI while slashing 0.379/0.449/0.583 in 118 plate appearances at home. Also, his splits against lefties aren’t bad, as his OBP is nearly identical as it is against righties at 0.404, he’s just lacking in the power department as he’s yet to homer off a lefty this season. I’m hoping he gets a chance to play out of the platoon, as everything indicates he’s an impact bat with good plate discipline with enough power to be dangerous. I’m starting him this week, as it feels like my best chance at production with the way he’s hit at home, with only one lefty on the schedule as well.

Barger is very similar to Aranda, and while I prefer Aranda since he’s the one I own, the gap between them is pretty small. He is eligible at both 3rd base and outfield, so he has that going for him. It worked in Aranda’s favor that he’s a first baseman, but I want to add Barger as well next weekend if I’m still able to. He homered in all 3 games over the weekend, and everything on his baseball savant page looks terrific. He has also been playing every day since the beginning of May, but on the season still only has 21 plate appearances against lefties. In the month of May, he slashed 0.292/0.370/0.517 with 4 home runs in 100 plate appearances, and is coming off of a 33.5 point week. Barger has great bat speed and good plate discipline, and has all the tools to be an impact hitter in a points league. My only thing is I really don’t need any more hitters than I already have, but if I was only going to add one it would be Barger.