Remember the name Tyler Soderstrom? You should — because something unusual is happening beneath the surface of his breakout. At first glance, his 14 home runs and emerging fantasy relevance paint the picture of a power-hitting outfielder/first baseman finally finding his stride. If you dig a little deeper a strange pattern emerges, as 13 of those 14 homers have come while he’s played first base. When he’s played the outfield, his power has seemingly disappeared. It’s not just noise, and it’s not something fantasy managers can afford to ignore. What if playing the outfield is doing more harm than we think? Today, we dive into the hidden toll of defensive position changes and how it’s affecting Soderstrom’s bat.

I started to wonder if this sort of trend existed for Soderstrom when he instantly started producing again once he moved back to first base. If you remember, he moved to the outfield in the first place to make room for Nick Kurtz to be promoted and play first base. Then Nick Kurtz got put on the injured list a few weeks ago, shifting Soderstrom back to first base. What made me pick up on this trend was that it felt like his cold streak lined up with him playing the outfield, but I didn’t know for sure until I looked at the data. It’s worth pointing out that Soderstrom was originally a catcher, so first base wasn’t even his primary position to begin with. It could be that he just needs time to adjust to the outfield just like first base last year, but it’s also possible it may be something more. As someone who rosters Soderstrom and believes in him, I loved the possibility of him gaining outfield eligibility and thought there couldn’t be a downside. This post explores the theory that playing the outfield is zapping Soderstrom’s power, and digs into what it means for his fantasy value moving forward.

Paying attention to defensive positioning and how it could affect the bat isn’t something I’ve paid attention to in the past, this is just an instance where I finally noticed it. Since fantasy baseball is all about offense and has nothing to do with defense for hitters, we’ve ignored something that may actually matter and affect offensive production. It wasn’t really a theory I put much stock in, but with Soderstrom the production is so stark that I simply can’t ignore it. Overall, when Soderstrom has played first this year he’s been an elite hitter, slashing 0.275/0.364/0.618 with a 0.980 OPS and 0.344 ISO, with 13 home runs and 34 RBI. In 38 games at first base, his wRC+ is 173, so the numbers tell you he’s an elite power hitter at first base. In 31 games in the outfield, Soderstrom has slashed 0.243/0.315/0.330 with a 0.645 OPS and 0.087 ISO, with 1 home run and 9 RBI. When he’s played the outfield his wRC+ is 84. This paints the picture of two completely different hitters, where one is elite and one is well below average. It’s also enough of a sample size to matter, since he’s almost played the two positions equally to this point. It really tells me there’s something to it when I add that in 10 games since moving back to first base Soderstrom has been red hot. In those 10 games, he is slashing 0.281/0.452/0.750 with a 1.202 OPS and 0.469 ISO, with 4 home runs and 13 RBI with a 229 wRC+. In those games he’s also had more walks than strikeouts, making this the best version of Soderstrom we’ve ever seen in a points league. I wish that I’d noticed this trend a week sooner before I took Siderstrom out of my lineup, as I left his 32 points for the week on my bench. This is a trend clearly worth monitoring, as Kurtz is currently on a rehab assignment and will be rejoining the team soon. I hope for Soderstrom’s sake the A’s have noticed this trend and won’t simply ignore it. It’s possible it doesn’t slow down this hot streak at all, but it’s a great opportunity to see how real this trend really is.

For fantasy baseball purposes, I’d like for the A’s to find a way to keep him at first base, as I view the trend as a real concern at the moment. I’ll admit I’m even a bit frustrated, because I’m wondering what his numbers might look like right now if he’d stayed at first base the whole time. It could be that his cold streak happened to coincide with playing the outfield, as all players get hot and cold throughout the season. So I can’t say for sure his stats would be considerably better, but there is a real chance they would be. I think as a fantasy manager there aren’t a ton of actionable steps, as I’d continue starting him and wouldn’t want to miss out on the upside and potential power production. If he’s struggling again once he moves to the outfield, maybe bench him if there are other good options. I wouldn’t even necessarily sell high right now, just because I believe in him long term, and his production at first base has clearly been legit. I will definitely be checking back in a month or so to see if this trend has continued. I honestly am hoping I’m wrong, just because I don’t want his power to be zapped once again when Kurtz comes back and Soderstrom has to move back into the outfield. I also hope the A’s are paying attention to this trend and will act accordingly, but I can’t say I have much faith that anything changes. Based on the data we have so far, this is worth monitoring since most of his production is built on power and hitting home runs, and even with the bad stretch of 31 games in the outfield, Soderstrom is still on pace to hit more than 30 home runs and produce more than 100 RBI. 

To recap, up to this point Soderstrom has been a different hitter production wise depending on where he plays in the field. He could just be figuring it out and taking off no matter what position he plays going forward, but it would be a change to how it’s played out so far. Soderstrom still has elite potential, and as a breakout pick I’m invested in he’s still not someone I’m worried about. He’s also an intriguing option as a 1 point keeper in my league, as he and Neto are clearly my best 1 point options right now for next season. I’m curious to know if other players have initially struggled at the plate after shifting to a new position on defense. I may look into that and have a few more examples when I check back in on Soderstrom in a few weeks.