Over the past few weeks, I’ve taken a sharp but intentional turn in how I’m managing my fantasy baseball roster. After spending much of the season building around pitching depth and positional flexibility, I’ve pivoted toward chasing upside hitters who have a real chance to become difference-makers. This wasn’t a knee-jerk reaction, but a shift rooted in the fact that the best and most interesting options available are hitters. There is an opportunity to chase upside hitters since nobody else in my league really does. I want to use my full hitting lineup to advantage in a different way, and stop having to shuffle through new pitchers on my bench every week. When I get away from my patient approach is when I make moves and mistakes I regret in the end, so I want to lean into holding players I believe in longer until they break out. A few players I made the mistake of dropping and later regretting that I knew were good holds are Matthew Boyd, Jacob Misiorowski, and Drew Rasmussen. A bit more patience and hindsight and I would have avoided all three mistakes. In today’s post, I’m going to focus on the upside hitters I actually added and how I plan to proceed, and dig into the perfect comp I’ve found; that Marcelo Mayer may be the next Manny Machado.

For most of the season, my roster construction strategy has been steady and deliberate, prioritizing pitching depth with a bench full of arms and keeping one multi-position hitter for coverage. It’s a strategy I trust and have had success with, but this season is playing out a bit differently and I’m making some adjustments along the way. You may have noticed my shift towards upside hitters, as there are currently many more upside hitters available compared to upside pitchers. It’s why my bench now has 4 hitters in Marcelo Mayer, Evan Carter, Addison Barger, and Jonathan Aranda. They are also the ones I ended up adding by Monday, so you can see how my initial plans were tweaked a bit. I wanted some consistency and a high floor, so I added Aranda as a player who doesn’t have the upside but I know is good right now. I don’t plan on starting any of them outside of him, but it affords me the opportunity to be patient with some of the best breakout hitting candidates.

“Why Marcelo Mayer Reminds Me of Manny Machado”

When I started pursuing upside bats that I’m willing and able to be patient with, Marcelo Mayer was at the top of that list. He is the most unproven out of all the ones I added, but I believe it actually raises more intrigue into what he may become. He’s an interesting case since it feels like we’re all still waiting to find out the kind of player he’s going to be. I had heard the comps to Kyle Tucker, but it didn’t seem quite right to me since Mayer hasn’t shown the ability to steal bases in the way Tucker always has, and it’d be a stretch to project his advanced plate discipline onto any prospect. I’ve found that Kyle Tucker is actually a better comp for Evan Carter, who has shown a good eye at the plate and possesses the same power-speed combo, he just needs to find a way to stay healthy. I then thought of Corey Seager as a potentially better comparison for Marcelo Mayer, Both of them are good contact hitters, while it took some time for Seager to develop as a power hitter. That’s how many people see it playing out for Mayer as well, but I still thought there was a better player out there to compare him to, and that’s when Manny Machado came to mind.

It would be easier to just believe Mayer is going to have that plate disciplined approach like Corey Seager that’s so valuable in points leagues, but I see a profile like Machado has as much more realistic. With that being said, even from a points league perspective Machado has had the better career if you just look at regular season production. He definitely takes his walks as well though, even if he chases pitches out of the zone at times. Both Machado and Mayer arrived in the majors known as elite defenders, and it makes Mayer a good bet to stay on the field and quickly work his way out of his current platoon role. The fact the Red Sox just traded away Rafael Devers makes that even more likely. Mayer is already a shortstop playing third base, and while that’s unlikely to continue once Alex Bregman returns, he already now has that in common with Machado. I thought of Machado since I remember him reaching the major leagues with the same question marks as Mayer, even as a top prospect himself. There were questions of if he’d hit for enough power, but many 30+ homer seasons in his career have proven that wrong. When he signed with San Diego there was a concern it would zap his power, and that never became a problem either. There is a concern Mayer won’t hit for enough power as a lefty hitter in Boston, but he already has a two-homer game at Fenway that were both over 400 feet. It may not seem important, but it’s worth noting that he plays with the same casual presence that Machado has, where no moment ever feels too big or seems to rattle either player.

Just like Machado, I simply see Mayer as a player who will overcome these question marks and be an elite player, I just don’t know how long it will take. I am hoping he gets there early, and does enough this season to make me consider him as a one point keeper in my league. If he gets the playing time and regular at-bats the rest of the year, I think it’s a possibility. He should get the opportunity to drive in lots of runs like he did in triple A, and if he gets to 12-15 home runs I’d be happy with that total. In just a few weeks he already has 3, so he can definitely get there. His minor league numbers also compare favorably to Machado’s, although Manny went to the majors straight from Double A and was only 19 while Mayer is debuting at age 22. It doesn’t take certain players as long as normal to figure things out and improve, like Jackson Merrill for example. I’m hoping Mayer is that type of player, and look forward to seeing how accurate my comp for him might be.