Fantasy baseball players love to talk about “points per game,” but I’ve always felt that metric misses the mark — especially when it comes to evaluating hitters. It assumes a level playing field that doesn’t exist: some hitters get 700 plate appearances, others 400. Some bat leadoff, others platoon. In my experience, there’s a far more honest and actionable metric for judging offensive value in points leagues, and now I’ve created my own metric that’s much more accurate. The idea to find something better dawned on me when I was comparing the points per at bat for Michael Busch to Bryce Harper, where I found that Busch was actually performing better. I’m not going to sit here and act like I’d prefer Busch over Harper, but it may not be that far off. I believe even looking at points per at bat is too easy, so I instead created a metric that encompasses the things that matter to me the most. I believe I’ve found something real, and have run all the data and my rankings simply look and feel just right to me. Right now I prefer Harper, but is it really that crazy to think Busch could be the better player by next year? Harper will continue to age, and Busch is ascending and still coming into his own. So let’s dig into my first base rankings.

For now I’m calling my metric the points league efficiency index, or PLEI. Maybe I’ll come up with something better one day, or maybe it will stick and I’ll just roll with it.The metric I created did in fact still keep Busch in front of Harper, but let me be clear I’m not saying I’d follow this blindly or run and trade Harper or my top ranked first baseman for Busch. When I started this process, based on my own observation I felt Busch had to be the best free agent hitter in my league with his power and on base skills. Some of why I believe in the metric is that it turned out to be true, and I didn’t manipulate the data for Busch to be rated at the top either. The PLEI may not even be a finished product, but I’m committed to creating something I know works, and I’m using my own roster in my most important league as a test to find out if this really works or not. I believe in what I have right now, and have enough confidence to take this chance even if the metric has not been perfected. I want to focus on first base since it’s given me the biggest takeaways so far. According to my own model, I just added the second-best first baseman off of the waiver wire for free.

My top 10 ranked first baseman based on this years stats so far goes Pete Alonso, Michael Busch, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Spencer Torkelson, Bryce Harper, Josh Naylor, Jonathan Aranda, Nick Kurtz, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. A few weeks back I just missed out on getting Nick Kurtz off waivers, but I missed out due to where I was in the waiver order. I felt then I saw something special in his profile, as a player who is big with elite bat speed and power to the opposite field. It honestly reminds me of Aaron Judge, and considering he hasn’t yet had 200 plate appearances in MLB, Kurtz is only going to get better. Another observation is how low Vlad is on this list, but based on his stats this year he’s underperformed so far. So I think his ranking is fair, and the fact Alonso is first based on the model makes sense, since he’s clearly been the best first baseman in points leagues up until this point in 2025. These rankings made me realize how similar Aranda and Naylor are, and how comparable they really are. The two of them being ranked side by side makes sense to me. Naylor possesses much more power, but Aranda makes up for it with great plate discipline skills. I originally though the best comp for Aranda is a knock off version of Freddie Freeman, and while I do think it’s a good comp, Aranda hasn’t yet shown the power potential of Freeman, who has hit 30 homers in a season before. I think what’s left for Aranda is to hit more home runs in order to become an elite player. The reason Busch is ranked much higher is because he’s shown more ability to hit home runs while maintaining great on-base skills. It’s also very important to point out that it appears both Aranda and Busch have played their way out of their platoon roles, and only really sit if they’re facing one of the better lefty starters in the sport. That’s been a noteworthy development, and is why I’ve added both to my team. The playing time concern was the only red flag in their profiles from a points league context, so I’m excited to see what both can do continuing to play every day.

Considering I also have Freddie Freeman, I don’t have room to start all 3, so I’m using Aranda and Busch interchangeably based on matchups. I’m confident enough in them that I’ve even offered Freeman in some trades. I couldn’t get the return I was wanting, but I’m not in a hurry to trade away the number one ranked first baseman on CBS anyway. Trading him for a top outfielder would help my offense overall, but it’s not helpful if it requires me to sell low. Another positive is that Aranda and Busch are two potentially good keeper options for one point. It’s worth pointing out I was probably wrong to buy in so quickly on Tyler Soderstrom, who is 14th in my first base rankings. A few weeks ago I wrote about his struggles at the plate when he plays in the outfield, and that trend has only continued. So until he shows he can produce and hit home runs when he plays outfield I don’t think he’s useful or impactful in a points league.

Some of the other available free agent players who rated highly on my metric were Addison Barger, Jeff McNeil, George Springer, Yandy Diaz, Gavin Sheets and Alec Burleson. The number is especially high for Barger, and while I had already added him to my team, he’s still widely available and only owned in 63% of leagues. For context, in my outfield rankings he’s right behind Seiya Suzuki and Teoscar Hernandez who are both really good players. Barger and McNeil break my rule a bit, since I believe in needing a sample size of 200 plate appearances minimum, but both are so close to that mark that I’m making an exception. Other players my metric likes that don’t yet qualify are Dane Myers, Tyler Freeman, and Evan Carter.

To wrap up, I’d like to point out some observations I made when looking at my rankings that have given me a lot of confidence that they are accurate and useful. I’ve used my model to rank 100 players, and there is a clear cutoff point where everyone above a certain number is owned in almost all my leagues, and once it falls below that mark the value of the players clearly dips, and you start seeing a lot of names that are free agents in fantasy. So for me to be interested in adding a hitter or see him as useful, his PLEI needs to be above a certain number I have. Some of the notable players who grade out above that mark are Gleyber Torres, Tommy Edman, Zach Neto, and Brandon Nimmo. Now some of the notable players who are below this number are Wyatt Langford, Mike Trout, Steven Kwan, Jackson Merrill, and Cody Bellinger. The last thing that I sadly have to point out is how wrong I was on Ozzie Albies. He ranked dead last out of all the hitters I ranked, and another reason I created this model is so I’d never make that sort of mistake with my second pick again. I’m really excited for the future to see how my drafts go in future seasons, and for when I’ll have a full season’s worth of data to work with. I can’t wait to see what my rankings look like at the end of the season!