So far the early returns on my new metric for points league have been outstanding, and it’s clearly changed my offense for the better through two weeks. My team hit 12 or more home runs in both weeks, a number my team didn’t reach once all season. My confidence is only growing, as Michael Busch has been on a tear in the last two weeks. If you remember, when comparing Michael Busch to Bryce Harper in the first place is where the idea for creating this metric started. I hope somebody listened to me two weeks ago and got ahead of the crowd like me. After hitting 4 home runs in a span of 5 at bats this week, Busch is now the number one ranked first baseman based on my points league efficiency index (PLEI), and is also fighting off those platoon concerns by homering off two lefties in back to back at bats. I’m telling you this formula works, and if you follow my rankings in a points league, your offense will be humming in no time! Now let’s get to my outfield rankings and what stands out to me.

I have an outfield ranking including 42 players, but shortened it down to 25 for the article. My top 25 outfielders are separated into two tiers, with a clear top 10 of the elite outfielders who have separated themselves from the rest of the pack based on my PLEI metric. Those 10 players, in order, are Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna Jr, Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto, James Wood, George Springer, Byron Buxton, Corbin Carroll, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. It’s not how I would rank them long-term when accounting for age and injury history, but from a purely statistical basis it’s the group that’s separated themselves. I’ll admit that I’m not sure Springer belongs here when considering the age and the fact this crazy hot streak is what’s pushed him up this high. Based on age and injury history I prefer Crow-Armstrong ahead of Springer, Buxton, and Carroll. My favorite player to target from this group has been James Wood, because he’s young and hits for power in a way that only Aaron Judge and Ohtani do. He’s the closest thing to being in their tier with his power and speed combo. In my league he would only cost two points to keep, so I’ve been trying hard to trade for him, dreaming of how my keepers could be Judge and Wood going into next season. If I was ranking based on the profile I prefer it would go Judge, Wood, Tucker, Acuna, and Soto since they are much safer bets to continue what they’re doing in future seasons based on plate discipline and the higher batting average they are capable of producing. 

Looking at the rest of my rankings based on my PLEI metric, 11-25 is Jazz Chisholm Jr, Seiya Suzuki, Fernando Tatis Jr, Riley Greene, Addison Barger, Jeff McNeil, Randy Arozarena, Maikel Garcia, Kyle Stowers, Brent Rooker, Cody Bellinger, Andy Pages, O’neil Cruz, Zach Mckinstry, and Christian Yelich. I’ll reiterate that I don’t follow my own rankings to a T, since things like stability and track record are also important to me, but my rankings are great for contextualizing pure production and what works best in a points league. Some observations I’d like to make include players who are in my top 25 but also the most notable ones that aren’t, like Julio Rodriguez and Mookie Betts. It’s a great way to find the upside and breakout players like Addison Barger and Kyle Stowers, but it takes some internal nuance to not look at purely statistics. It would be nice and a lot easier to approach it that way, but the reality is there is nothing in life you can be great at without proper context and looking at the whole picture. What I mean is that while McNeil and Mckinstry made it into my top 25, I see them as clearly below the rest when they don’t offer much upside and we already know what they are. They are great options for consistency and playing it safe, but are not the type of players who are going to level up and reach a new ceiling. You’ll learn I’m not much of a fan of Julio Rodriguez, but anyone including me is still going to take him over those two because of the upside and ceiling he’s at least shown he can reach.The player this has taught me I was the most wrong about is Randy Arozarena, and I changed my tune to the point I was excited I somehow got him off the wire. Coming off a hot week where he hit 5 home runs made me think I wouldn’t get him, but prior to June I thought he was one of the most underrated hitters, as at that point he’d hit right around 0.200 for a full year. He has turned it around since then, and a lot of why I’ve grown to really value him is that he takes a lot of walks and has enough power and speed for a 25/25 season as well. Some of these players like Arozarena and Stowers as well have taught me to value their profiles even if they have flaws. I’m finding I care a lot more about making the correct swinging decisions than I do about swinging and missing. Stowers has a great idea of the strike zone and doesn’t chase, and while he still swings and misses a lot I much prefer that to someone who chases pitches a lot. I’m not calling him Aaron Judge, but Judge is the clear example of why this profile works just fine. Nobody hitting the ball quite stacks up with what Judge does, but the idea is these types of players are dangerous because of the times they don’t swing and miss, and as long as that happens enough the production is sure to follow. Having a lot of swing and miss but also having good plate discipline and taking walks is a profile I’m all for at this point.

Now to give more focus on Julio Rodriguez and Mookie Betts, they are players I’ve liked who have been productive in their careers, but I’d really strongly suggest selling high on both while you still can. I’ve always been a bit lower on Rodriguez than the consensus, especially in a points league. He doesn’t really get on base at a high enough rate to have the impact of where he is drafted. I think this year has been bad enough that in some leagues if he was a free agent I wouldn’t add him or have a spot to start him because I have better options. I actually don’t see him being dropped in a 10 team points league as that crazy. The only reason it really would be crazy is because of the fact you can very likely trade him for a valuable player. I traded him in a deal for Tatis who I eventually paired with Betts to trade for Judge and Freeman. It’s a good display of why if you do enough trades where you continue to upgrade and get the best player in a trade, you turn Julio Rodriguez and Mookie Betts into Aaron Judge. My feelings on Betts are different from Rodriguez, as he’s had an elite career and been a player I’ve loved having on my teams. I do think it’s possible he has a profile that may not do well as age progresses and he gets older, and it’s a real concern of mine. When you pair that with the fact his season did not get off on the right foot from a health standpoint. He was sick and it caused him to lose around 20 pounds, and I believe there’s a real chance it could be a lost season. I do think he could bounce back next season, but again his age is working against him. When someone doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard anyway and has been successful squeezing the very most power out of their skillset, it scares me off a bit as he gets older. He is going to be valuable and start in all leagues this season and next and will still be impactful, but I also don’t think he has the same ceiling anymore that he once did. Eventually, my rankings will be all encompassing to include eye test and upside while blending that with the stats and analytics.