Today I just want to give some initial thoughts and an overview of my 2026 draft strategy for points leagues. I remember early in this season when I talked about something similar, but I’ve learned so much this season that my draft strategy has completely changed. I also must admit that it’s kind of shocking to compare my process and strategy now to what it was. I had come into this season with a lot of confidence in my abilities and thought I knew what I was doing, but I had no idea how much further I could go and how much I had to learn. I still do, but it feels like I’m a lot closer now to maximizing my true potential here and that really excites me.

When I look at all of my keeper options, I’m only interested in finding and keeping the players with the most value who would be the hardest to replace next season. That may sound obvious on the surface, but it’s really not, considering I didn’t even view keepers this way prior to this season. For example, what I mean by this is how valuable a player really is depends on a lot of factors, such as what position they play or how much depth there is at their position. One thing I’ve noticed is that the catcher position has become so deep that there is plenty of talent to go around in a 10 or even 12 team points league. Considering that’s the case, it wouldn’t make much sense to use one of my keeper spots for a catcher. To give the real life example to what I’m dealing with, let’s compare Ben Rice at catcher to Luke Keaschall at second base. In a vacuum, Rice is clearly the better hitter and impacts the ball in a way that Keaschall could only dream of. In this comparison though, what position these two play means almost everything. Keaschall plays second base, which is the weakest and shallowest position in fantasy baseball, where there are just not many options. While Keaschall doesn’t yet have 200 plate appearances in the major leagues, he continues to lead all second baseman in fantasy points per game. This is all why I’m leaning heavily towards Keaschall as a keeper, since he’s incredibly valuable at second base for points league purposes. 

Even though you would struggle to find someone who is as high on Ben Rice as I am, I could not keep him and completely punt at catcher in the draft and still end up with a good one. You could almost argue that Rice would be more valuable to consider at first base, since he’s also eligible there and the position is more shallow. People normally don’t have two catcher eligible players on their roster, as it had always been a given they provided the most value at catcher. If someone already has a catcher, they could see Rice as a better first baseman than the rest that are available and take him to play first on their team. It’s the only real concern or downside to not keeping Rice, as well as his profile combined with a home run friendly home park that offers the possibility for immense upside as well. It’s actually difficult to find a player page on baseball savant that looks better than Rice’s where there is red everywhere, and he’s one of only 3 players who is above average in every single statcast category. The other two are Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Drake Baldwin, which is fitting considering Rice and Baldwin have been two catchers I’ve discussed frequently as great options if they get the playing time. There is a scenario where the best two keeper options to pair with Aaron Judge are just Keaschall and Rice, but first we must discuss my other options.

The only other one point keeper options in the running are Zach Neto and Ramon Laureano, at least on the hitting side. In my article next week I’ll go over the one point keeper options I have on the pitching side, and give my thoughts on where I currently stand. I think a lot of people would suggest that Neto would be a no-brainer as a keeper option, but part of me doesn’t fully trust his profile, and from a points league context some of it is concerning. Neto strikes out a lot, and he doesn’t walk much either. The surprising part is that for someone with that profile his plate discipline really isn’t that bad, and while he does chase some it’s not enough for it to be a concern. His on-base percentage concerns me, as I think it’s right on the edge of being relevant and useful in a points league. For the season, his OBP is 0.319, and for his career it’s 0.316. So there is enough of a sample that it’s safe to assume this is just who he is. I’ve decided that his best comp is definitely Lindor, but it’s interesting that I would think that but also not be in love with Neto. Both have 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases, and both lead off and are great volume plays for points leagues. The glaring difference does matter though, which is the fact Lindor is better at getting on base and has a much better strikeout to walk rate. Lindor has a 0.337 OBP this season and a career OBP of 0.341. So there is a history of Lindor having an on-base percentage 0.02 to 0.025 higher than Neto’s. It may seem small but it’s not, and over a large sample size like this it matters. It’s the reason Neto is widely viewed as better in categories leagues, and it’s worth saying now that it will inflate his draft stock much higher than it really should be in a points league. This shows a way to stand out from the industry in points leagues, where Neto will no doubt be drafted higher than Keaschall in points leagues but Keaschall is clearly more valuable and probably should be drafted ahead of Neto. So that’s why I give the edge to Keaschall here again. I’m pretty set on two of my keepers being Judge and Keaschall, unless something drastically changes or Keaschall goes ice cold for the rest of the regular season that’s left. So for me that final keeper spot will come down to Neto, Laureano, Rice, or a pitcher.

For Laureano, he’s an interesting option because his stats are easily the best out of these three, but his track record makes him hardest to buy into. There is no doubt he’s been great this season, but I have real doubt he will be the same next season or that I could count on this again. He has a 0.293 batting average and 0.889 OPS, and the statcast data completely backs it up too. So what he’s done this season is no fluke either, but it’s also not a given he will play every day next season, and we don’t even know what team he will be playing for. All of this and everything I said about Neto is making me lean towards keeping Rice if I decide to keep a 3rd hitter. I see him being very safe and reliable, while also having breakout and upside potential. He has finally lived up to his elite statcast data now that he’s playing every day, and even at a deep position like catcher he may be too valuable to let go of. If he finishes out the year playing every day and has a clear starting role going into next season, I’ll be very tempted to just keep him instead of a pitcher who I know will likely just get hurt.

Something I’m currently working on that you can look for in the future is a consistency metric for points league hitters and pitchers. It’s the one aspect and piece of the puzzle I hadn’t solved or incorporated into my metrics, but it’s in the works now and I’m really excited about that as well. Right now, my efficiency index, projections, and consistency rating are all separated, but my plan in the off-season is to find a way to incorporate all three of these into one big season-long projection for players. I can’t wait to see what this could lead to, as my confidence that I’m onto something big here only continues to grow.