As promised, it’s time to talk about the best keeper options I have at starting pitcher. The options include Shane Bieber, Kyle Bradish, Cam Schlittler, Cade Horton, Merrill Kelly, Ryne Nelson, and Trevor Rogers. In an ideal world I would keep all of them as one point keepers, but I can’t justifiably do such a thing when I have a chance to keep Aaron Judge. Keeping Judge along with two of these starters sounds like a nice alternative. For the purposes of this exercise, I have shortened my list of serious keeper contenders to four names, and I’ll explain why. I have my reasons, and the four I’m considering are Shane Bieber, Kyle Bradish, Cam Schlittler, and Cade Horton. I see them being the four highest draft picks going into next season out of the group, and possibly in the order I gave the four of them. I really like the reliability and consistency of Kelly, Nelson, and Rogers, but there are some things working against them. For starters, I believe they will continue to be overlooked and underrated, so if I can get them cheap in the draft I’d rather do that than keep them. I believe Bieber, Bradish, Schlittler, and Horton will have a lot of hype going into next season, and at the very least I would predict that Bieber, Bradish, and Schlittler will be drafted like top 30 starting pitchers. Kelly has his age working against him, also raising his risk of injury. I like Nelson, but am concerned his role won’t be clear and specified, especially since he came into this season pitching out of the bullpen, even though he was a successful starter last season as well. Rogers has been the best out of everyone on this list this season, but he’s also had the most up and down career, so it would be bad business to buy into him at his absolute peak like this.

Let’s start with Bieber, who I drafted and stashed on my team all season for keeper purposes more than anything else. He was the one I was most excited and confident in, and while he’s been good, I did expect a bit more from him honestly. The fact he is pitching and showing he’s healthy (just like Kyle Bradish) is a great sign on its own, and going into the off-season healthy will only help both going into next season. Bieber pitched last on Sunday, with a stat line of 6 innings, 4 hits, 1 earned run, 1 walk, and 5 k’s while earning the win. That’s a great start, where he went 6 with a WHIP under 1 while only allowing 1 run. Overall, in 5 starts Bieber has a 3.72 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, with 30 k’s in 29 innings. The Blue Jays have been pretty careful with him, but I’m hoping the reins come off next year and they let him throw more pitches. I still see Bieber as the safest option, and he’s definitely had the longest track record of success out of any of my other options. It matters to me that he’s won a Cy Young, even if he may not have that type of ceiling anymore. I like that he’s thrown 200 innings twice before and that he’s shown that ability while also having a career 1.11 WHIP. Even if Schlittler offers more upside, for example, he doesn’t have the track record of Bieber or the safe floor he possesses. So it’s very hard to see a scenario where I don’t keep Bieber, but I haven’t made a decision yet.

I view Bradish very similar to Bieber and would probably rank them right next to each other if I ranked all starting pitchers. It’s also why I think he’s criminally underrated and has been slept on in his return from Tommy John surgery in a way that Shane Bieber was not. I guess people may have forgotten how good Bradish was before the injury. In 2023, he had a 2.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, with 168 k’s in 168.2 innings. He was even better last year before he got hurt with 53 k’s in only 39.1 innings, with a similar 2.75 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. So far since his return from injury, Bradish has kept up the higher strikeout rate, with 30 k’s in 22 innings. He has a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, and struck out 10 in his debut this season. In his last start on Monday Bradish had a line of 5 innings, 4 hits, 1 earned run, 4 walks, and 9 k’s while earning the win. The 4 walks are a bit of a concern, but Bradish earned multiple whiffs on all 4 of his pitches on his way to an impressive 9 strikeouts. All the best pitchers in the sport have more than 1 elite pitch, and Bradish is no different. Both his breaking balls in the sweeper and curveball are elite. While his four-seam fastball gets hit hard and is not a good pitch, his sinker is useful and he commands it well. He also knows what his good pitches are and limits his fastball usage, so I don’t really worry about that at all. I see Bieber and Bradish as two pitchers I’d be happy to keep, but Cam Schlittler might have better stuff than both of them, and he’s the one I’m most excited about at the moment.

Schlittler of the New York Yankees did not have the start I was hoping for on Tuesday, only completing 4.2 innings and giving up 3 hits, 4 earned runs, 5 walks, and 6 strikeouts. When the Yankees jumped out to an early 10-1 lead, I thought it was a given Schlittler would cruise and earn the win given that was the score going into the 5th inning. The wheels really fell off for him then, and he failed to even get out of the 5th inning. This may have tempered my enthusiasm for Schlittler, and showed the floor he still possesses. He has struggled with walks and a high WHIP, but I haven’t been too concerned because prior to this start Schlittler had been cruising, going 6 innings while allowing 1 run or less with 7+ k’s in 4 of his previous 5 starts before this one. There is still a lot I like about him, and one bad inning doesn’t change that or make him a different pitcher. He still has 3 great secondary pitches in his sweeper, curveball, and cutter, and throws his fastball hard enough that it’s difficult for hitters to catch up to. While it’s been said not to have great shape as a pitch, Schlittler does a great job keeping it up in the zone, and it’s hard to catch up to when he can also reach triple digits with the pitch when he wants to. It’s still a profile I very much believe in, and he’s still in a great situation pitching for a good team that should provide plenty of run support. I’m also starting to really favor Yankees starting pitchers in my analysis because they are given a long leash and not babied even as rookies. Even Schlittler averages close to 100 pitches per start, so he definitely has that working in his favor. Outside of him, the other Yankee starters I would target are Carlos Rodon and Max Fried in drafts next year because they also are allowed to throw a lot of pitches and get a lot of innings as well. I’m not as interested in Will Warren or Luis Gil because I really don’t trust them or see them having the stability that Schlittler possesses. If he pitches well in his final start or two, Schlittler will deserve strong consideration as a keeper for me.

Cade Horton also pitched on Tuesday, and he kept up his second half dominance. He had a line of 5 innings, 3 hits, 1 earned run, 1 walk, and 6 strikeouts while earning the win against the Pirates. In his last 11 starts, Horton has a 0.93 ERA and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in all 11 starts. In that span he’s thrown 58.1 innings with a 0.79 WHIP as well. To call the run he’s on impressive would be an understatement, and the only negative I can point out is the Cubs have mostly limited Horton to around 5 innings per start and 75 pitches. So the Cubs are being very careful with him, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will next season. Horton has also proven capable of completing 6 or 7 innings when given the opportunity, so I’m not really worried about his ability to pitch deeper into games when given the chance. Horton pitches for a good team that has a good offense and plays elite defense behind him, and team context wise is in the best situation of all these pitchers. It appears that Horton lacks the strikeout upside of the other 3 above him in this article, with 95 k’s in 115 innings, but in those last 11 starts the strikeout rate has picked up, with 52 k’s in 58.1 innings. Horton is showing the strikeout upside he showed in the minor leagues, and on top of that he’s been very efficient which is even more important in points leagues. While I don’t think Horton or any pitcher will keep an ERA under 1 like this, he deserves credit for being hard to score runs on in a way Cubs fans haven’t seen since Jake Arrieta 10 years ago in 2015. I have continued to view Horton as a cut below the rest of these options from a keeper perspective, but the longer this run goes on the harder it is to ignore or explain away. If he continues this run for 2 more starts and into the postseason I would see Horton as the safest keeper option out of all these pitchers. It’s already starting to feel this way, and while there are flashier names and starters out there, it reminds me of the situation I found myself in with Cristopher Sanchez of the Phillies last season. He also pitches for a good team and is very efficient, but I didn’t keep him as a 1 point keeper and it was a clear mistake. He has gone on to be the ace of the Phillies this season and a top 5 starting pitcher, and is a mistake I want to learn from and not make again. So Horton has a lot working in his favor, and he was a top prospect as well, so it’s not like this breakout has come out of nowhere either. 

I will likely give another update on where I’m at in my analysis of my keeper options, even though it’s unlikely to be my final decision. By that point, I hope to be in a place where I can use my consistency score to make my decision a little easier. I will be interested to see how my metrics may change my view here, but this is a good way to show where I’m currently at in the process and what I’m thinking at the moment.